Defence is not typically a key voter issue in Canada, and recent polls indicate this election will be no different.
However, defence has risen to the forefront as an issue globally, as the U.S. signals it may pull back from global defence and European allies increase defence spending. Closer to home, President Donald Trump’s annexation rhetoric has focused attention on Canadian defence capabilities.
“[The Canada-U.S. diplomatic dispute] has definitely made a difference,” said Stuart McCarthy, executive vice-president at public affairs firm Bluesky Strategy Group, in an interview.
“It has also been a wakeup call on putting all our eggs in one basket with the U.S. instead of having a more diversified defence industrial base with European allies to provide Canada more independence,” McCarthy added in an email.
The Liberal plan
In late March, Liberal Leader Mark Carney unveiled an ambitious — but uncosted — defence strategy that linked defence goals with industrial policy.
“Now more than ever, we need to secure Canadian sovereignty by strengthening our military,”
Carney said at a March 25 speech in Halifax. “We’re going to prioritize investments here in Canada, and every dollar we spend is going to be spent wisely and effectively, and help us build our capabilities to get to our two per cent NATO target by 2030 at the latest.”
McCarthy says he is skeptical.
“I would actually be suspect of anyone who tells me we can get to 2 per cent by a certain date given our track record on meeting defence spending targets in general,” he said.
“[Canada] doesn’t have a funding problem,” he said. “We have a spending problem. We can’t get the money out the door fast enough.”
Christian Leuprecht, a professor at Queen’s University and the Royal Military College of Canada, made a similar observation in a December interview with Canadian Affairs.
“The problem is [the Department of National Defence] spent about $5 billion in capital for the last 20 years,” he said. “So it suggests that under current policies and with current staffing, it would be very difficult for the department to spend more. You could give them … an extra $10 billion on capital, and the department would likely not be able to spend it.”
McCarthy also identified staffing as a key limitation.
“ You can build as much equipment as you want,” said McCarthy. “If you don’t have the people to operate it, that equipment’s useless.”
In his Halifax campaign speech, Carney promised to boost the Canadian Armed Forces’ size by overhauling its recruitment processes, raising pay, constructing new on-base housing, and improving access to health-care and child-care services for military personnel.
He also pledged significant investments in Canada’s sea and air capabilities.
Canada would acquire an unspecified number of new submarines and heavy icebreakers, would update the Coast Guard’s mandate to play a more active role in territorial defence, and would create a “first-in-class” drone capability.
In one of his first acts as prime minister, Carney ordered a review of Canada’s contract to purchase 88 F-35 fighter jets from U.S. aerospace company Lockheed Martin. The Carney government has said the goal of this review is to explore opportunities to shift procurement away from the U.S.
As Canadian Affairs reported last week, defence experts have serious concerns about Canada revisiting its F-35 procurement decision. They noted Canada has no choice but to replace its aging, fourth-generation CF-18 aircraft.
“You need something now,” said American Lt. Gen. (Ret’d) David Deptula, a senior scholar at the U.S. Air Force Academy’s Institute for Future Conflict. “[There is no] value in waiting on procuring fifth-generation aircraft like the F-35 for the promise of something more capable.”
The experts further noted the F-35s offer the best return on investment, and sourcing jets from a different provider could lead to significant financial and operational inefficiencies.
The Conservative plan
Unlike the Liberals, the Conservatives have not committed Canada to reaching the NATO defence spending target by a specific date.
So far, the Conservatives’ defence policies have been focused on enhancing Canada’s presence in the Arctic, which is an area of increasing geopolitical importance as temperatures rise.
In a Feb. 10 speech to reporters in Iqaluit, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre vowed to recruit 2,000 new Canadian Rangers to patrol the Arctic, and acquire two polar icebreakers. Icebreakers open up Arctic channels for other boats to navigate, and help to assert sovereignty over territory.
McCarthy says the icebreaker pledge is unlikely to be fulfilled in the near future, regardless of which party forms government after the election. “Those are still long-term commitments,” he said. “Those ships could be 10 years away at least.”
Poilievre has also pledged to build a permanent Arctic military base in Nunavut.
Like the Liberals, the Conservative Party has not indicated what these investments would cost. The party did not respond to multiple requests for comment about their defence policies.
The NDP plan
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has pledged to increase defence spending to two per cent of GDP by 2032. He has emphasized investments that would benefit Canadian communities and military personnel, including constructing 5,000 affordable military homes.
“[W]ith Trump causing economic uncertainty with his tariffs, New Democrats want to ensure our men and women who serve have what they need in these tough times — adequate wages, housing and proper equipment,” an NDP spokesperson told Canadian Affairs in an emailed statement.
On a March 16 visit to Iqaluit, Singh said he would cancel the F-35 fighter jet contract in favour of supporting domestic production of the jets.
Canada lacks the industrial capacity to produce fighter jets domestically, so it is unclear how an NDP government would repatriate the production.
Singh also proposed strengthening Arctic sovereignty by establishing new marine search and rescue stations, building additional small craft harbours and expanding the capacity of the Canadian Rangers. The party’s plans are also uncosted.
McCarthy said most voters do not look to the NDP for their positions on defence. “I think most people tend to ignore the NDP at the best of times when it comes to defence,” he said.
