Last week, Premier Danielle Smith announced that Albertans will vote in a referendum on Oct. 19 on a slate of government-initiated questions on immigration and constitutional reform.
Meanwhile, a civic group is pushing for Albertans to be asked an additional question that day: Should Alberta separate from Canada?
To get that question on the ballot, the group needs to gather about 177,000 signatures by May 2.
Erika Barootes, a former principal secretary to Smith, says the United Conservative Party (UCP) government is not asking the secession question itself because an active petition movement is already underway.
“The government didn’t want to interfere with this citizen-led initiative,” said Barootes.
Smith’s press secretary, Sam Blackett, says the premier intends to include the independence question on the same ballot as the government-initiated questions if the organizers gather the requisite signatures.
“If there is support for independence, that [ballot] process is the proper avenue for citizens to bring it forward for all Albertans to have a say on,” Blackett told Canadian Affairs in an emailed statement.
Matt Solberg, who served as executive director of government caucus for the UCP in 2022 and 2023, says the outcome of the referendum is far from clear — whatever form it takes.
“ The campaign on this has not begun in my mind yet,” said Solberg, who is now an Edmonton-based partner at New West Public Affairs.
“I think people in this province and this country have to take it seriously. No one should have an excuse to be surprised by the results in October if you start paying attention now.”
Mandates and messaging
Barootes, who is today a principal at public affairs firm Pratum Consulting, says Smith favours opportunities for direct democracy, such as those enabled by public referenda.
“That’s more her style,” said Barootes. “She wants buy-in … and I think that’s what she’s hoping to achieve through this referendum … more direction from Albertans through a direct, democratic process.”
The nine questions the government is proposing to ask touch on immigration, constitutional reform and voting procedure.
The immigration questions include whether certain non-permanent residents should be eligible for publicly funded social services such as health care and education, and whether they should have to reside in the province a minimum amount of time to qualify for them.
The constitutional questions include whether Alberta should push for constitutional amendments to abolish the Senate and give provinces more control over judicial appointments.
“ More than anything, I think this is the premier wanting to give the public a chance to weigh in on these issues,” said Solberg.
The path to independence
In 2021, Alberta passed the Citizen Initiative Act, a law allowing eligible electors to propose petition drives that, if successful, can lead to referenda on constitutional or other questions.
The approximately 177,000-signature threshold required to get the independence question on the ballot is equal to 10 per cent of votes cast in the 2023 general election.
The question the separatist organizer, Mitch Sylvestre, is proposing to ask Albertans is: “Do you agree that the Province of Alberta should cease to be a part of Canada to become an independent state?”
Sylvestre is the CEO of the Alberta Prosperity Project, which describes itself as a “non-profit educational project” made up of “Albertans who want to be freed from Ottawa.”
Sylvestre and the Alberta Prosperity Project did not respond to multiple requests for comment by press time. It is not clear how many signatures they have already collected.
On Feb. 9, the Angus Reid Institute released polling data showing 29 per cent of Albertans favour separating from Canada. Sixty-five per cent said they were in favour of remaining part of Canada; five per cent said they were unsure.
Three-quarters of “stay” respondents said they would leave Alberta and move elsewhere in Canada if the province separated.
The prediction market odds for a successful separation vote are 16 per cent on Polymarket and 14 per cent on Kalshi.
Polymarket also indicates a two per cent chance that Alberta will “come under U.S. sovereignty” by the end of 2026.
Eyes on October
The Citizen Initiative Act says that a vote on a citizen’s initiative is considered successful if more than 50 per cent of electors vote in favour of the initiative.
But this does not mean a vote to separate would necessarily result in secession.
The federal Clarity Act, which was passed in the wake of Quebec’s 1995 separatism referendum, says the House of Commons must determine whether a proposed secession question is clear and whether a referendum result reflects a “clear majority” before the federal government can enter negotiations.
So a successful “yes” vote would be the start of a messy, protracted legal process.
Barootes noted that Smith has maintained a federalist stance as Sylvestre has moved ahead with his petition.
“ She has gone against the push for a separation referendum,” said Barootes. “Her position as the premier, and as the UCP leader, is to have a sovereign Alberta within a united Canada.”
Solberg notes that it seems likely separatists will get their preferred question on the October ballot.
“It does appear that they have momentum, that they likely have the support needed to get to 177,000,” he said.
“My inkling is that Albertans, and those interested, should prepare for this question to be on the ballot this fall.”
How do the indigenous figure into this issue. Do they have a say? Did they agree to give up lands to Canada or to Alberta?
My goodness! If 29% wish to leave, then leave! sayonara!