In one of his first acts as prime minister, Mark Carney initiated a review of Canada’s purchase of fifth-generation, F-35 jets. These jets would replace Canada’s aging, Cold War-era fleet of fourth-generation, CF-18 aircraft.
A Department of National Defence spokesperson confirmed to Canadian Affairs that the government is “currently in the early stages of scoping the [F-35 purchase] in a way that is both efficient and thorough.”
Defence experts say revisiting the F-35 purchase now risks further delaying a critical purchase, and underscores the need for long-term vision in a rapidly shifting global security environment.
“We’re out of runway,” said Philippe Lagassé, a professor of international affairs at Carleton University. “There’s no more flexibility here.”
The review also occurs at a time when the U.S. and other allies and adversaries are moving forward on developing and procuring sixth-generation fighters, such as the F-47.
Political football
Carney ordered the review of Canada’s procurement of the F-35 jets as one of his first acts as prime minister.
The F-35 is widely regarded as the most advanced fighter jet in the world. Its stealth capabilities, avionics and imaging sensors give pilots an exceptionally broad range of combat capabilities.
In 2023, the Trudeau government pledged to procure 88 jets from American aerospace company Lockheed Martin at a cost of $19 billion. Contractually, though, Ottawa is so far only committed to purchasing 16 of the 88 planes, with the first jets slated for delivery in 2026.
Ottawa’s procurement decision followed decades of political football, passed back and forth between Liberal and Conservative governments, beginning with Prime Minister Jean Chretien’s 1997 decision to support the aircraft’s early development program.
“It stands out as one of these hallmarks of an acquisition that gets deeply politicized and becomes a lightning rod for all sorts of conspiratorial thinking,” said Lagassé.
Carney’s move to revisit the F-35 purchase reflects escalating concerns — in Ottawa and more broadly — that the U.S. is no longer a reliable security partner. A Nanos poll released March 31 indicates six in 10 Canadians oppose the F-35 purchase, with respondents aged 55 and older showing the highest opposition to American procurement.
A key concern with the F-35 purchase is that it would require ongoing U.S. support to service, maintain and use the jets.
But Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at the U.K.-based Royal United Services Institute think tank, says this outlook misunderstands Canada’s overall reliance on the U.S. in defence matters.
“[T]here’s a whole host of things that the Canadian military relies on the U.S. for, as with most NATO allies. And so the idea that having supply chain and mission data file dependencies on the U.S. through the F-35 would be the reason why the [Canadian] military was not able to function … [is] missing the main point.”
Lagassé echoed these observations. “ This isn’t an F-35 issue,” he said. “This is an American capability issue at large.”
American Lt. Gen. (Ret’d) David Deptula, a senior scholar at the U.S. Air Force Academy’s Institute for Future Conflict, says Canada would not meaningfully bolster its independence by procuring a fighter from an alternative supplier, such as Sweden’s Saab Gripen or France’s Dassault Rafale.
“Every weapon system, if it’s not indigenously produced … is going to be dependent on the producing nation,” he said.
Targeting alternatives
Some Canadian pundits have suggested Canada should scale back its purchase of F-35s and instead acquire some non-U.S. aircraft, such as Saab’s Gripen. This fighter jet was the runner-up to the F-35 in the Trudeau government’s procurement competition.
But experts say a mixed fleet would be both financially and operationally inefficient.
“ At that point, the cost you are paying per aircraft for the F-35 will be astronomical, because you’ll still have to pay for all these massive infrastructure investments,” said Bronk. “ The economics of it really don’t stack up.”
Deptula further notes that the F-35’s technological features are far superior to the alternatives. “It’s the sensors, processing power and integration that the F-35 possesses that no other aircraft does.”
The return on investment must also be considered, Deptula says.
“ [The F-35s] can accomplish … what it would take 15, 20 or 30 other non-stealthy, less-capable, but less-expensive aircraft.
“When you tally up the cost to achieve a particular outcome, what you’ll find is the F-35 is an extraordinarily valuable platform for the money.”
A widening gap
While Canada agonizes over fifth-generation procurement, its allies and adversaries are focused on sixth-generation aircraft.
On March 21, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the government had awarded U.S. aerospace giant Boeing a contract to develop the F-47.
“[The F-47 is] something the likes of which nobody has seen before,” Trump told reporters, noting an experimental version of the plane has been secretly flying for nearly five years. “The F-47 will be the most advanced, most capable, most lethal aircraft ever built.”
The U.K., Japan and Italy are collaborating on the Global Combat Air Programme to acquire sixth-generation fighter jets that would be shared by the three countries. France, Germany and Spain, likewise, are developing the Future Combat Air System fighter acquisition program.
Russia and China, too, are both well on their way toward sixth-generation capabilities.
Deptula says the capabilities of the F-47 may be an order of magnitude greater than those of the F-35 — just as the F-35’s capabilities are an order of magnitude greater than fourth-generation planes like Canada’s CF-18s.
But sixth-generation fighters like the F-47 are still years away from combat readiness, and Canada’s CF-18s are running on fumes. Skipping a generation is not feasible.
“The CF-18s are at the very end of their life,” said Lagassé. “There is no sixth-generation [aircraft] that’s going to be coming on the line in time for us to replace the CF-18.”
Deptula agrees that filling Canada’s fighter gap is urgent.
“You need something now,” he said. “[There is no] value in waiting on procuring fifth-generation aircraft like the F-35 for the promise of something more capable.”
A U.S. State Department spokesperson confirmed in an April 1 statement to Canadian Affairs that Canada’s contract to purchase the remaining F-35s from Lockheed Martin “remains in place and is an important step towards increasing Canadian defence spending in line with its NATO commitments.”
“Integrating the F-35 will allow Canada interchangeability with U.S. forces for the NORAD mission, essential at a time when we are pressing Canada to meet its pledge and obligation to NORAD modernization, and while we are considering Canadian participation in the Golden Dome to further enhance the safety of America,” the spokesperson said, referring to Trump’s proposed aerial defence shield over the U.S.
Moving forward, Bronk says there is clear value to Canada remaining steadfast in its decision-making.
“ A sub-optimal decision that is at least made and stuck to is much better than continually attempting to second guess and just watching time slip away.”
