Overview:
This article is the second in our series looking at regional dynamics and local issues in the 2025 federal election.
The issues that have historically tilted the scales in Quebec polls are taking a backseat this election, sources say.
Throughout the campaign, U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff and annexation threats have eclipsed concerns over issues such as protecting the French language and culture. At the French leaders’ debate on April 16, these issues also took centre stage.
“Overall, it’s not a campaign that’s really centered on, say, the role of Quebec, or the status of Quebec within Canada,” said Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University.
Cost of living concerns have also been overshadowed by Trump, says Moshe Lander, an economics professor at Concordia University.
“Tariffs have probably knocked every other major election issue well into second place,” Lander said.
Polls show this reordering of voter concerns has catapulted the Liberals into first place, with 43 per cent of Quebecers signalling they would support the Liberals as of April 16. The Bloc Québécois and Conservatives are roughly tied with about 24 per cent of the vote. The NDP are a distant fourth at six per cent.
“The White House has really helped the Liberals a lot in Quebec,” said Béland. “It’s been difficult for both the Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois to adjust to a sudden shift in the national political conversation.”
‘Playing defence’
A February 2025 poll that asked Canadians about their “attachment to Canada” showed the strongest gains among Quebecers, a province that has long had a strong separatist movement.
The surge in Canadian patriotism has largely “negated” support for the province’s nationalist Bloc Québécois, Lander says. Throughout 2024, the party had dominated the polls. And in a closely contested by-election last year, the Bloc Québécois won the Montreal riding of LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, a former Liberal stronghold.
Now, the tables have turned and the Bloc are playing defence, says Béland. “They’re trying to save their seats.”
| Region: Quebec | ||||
| Seats: 78 | ||||
| Held at Dissolution | ||||
| Liberal | Conservative | Bloc Québécois | NDP | Other |
| 33 | 9 | 33 | 1 | 2 |
| Current Polling | ||||
| Liberal | Conservative | Bloc Québécois | NDP | Other |
| 43% | 23% | 24% | 6% | 3% |
Louis-Philippe Sauvé, the Bloc Québécois MP for LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, says a vote for his party remains in Quebecers’ best interest.
The Bloc Québécois “helps to balance power in a way that if the federal government does not want to support [Quebec], it will [still] have to deal with the presence of Quebec and its concerns,” he said.
This argument may fail to persuade voters, says Béland, who notes that strong campaigns by the national parties have previously cratered support for the Bloc. In 2011, the NDP under Jack Layton won 59 of 75 Quebec seats in their famed “Orange Wave.” In 2015, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals won 40 of 78 seats. In both elections, the Bloc placed fourth.
The Bloc began this election campaign holding 33 of 78 seats — the same number as the Liberals.
“I think the Bloc discovered that their support in Quebec is maybe not as entrenched as what they believe,” Béland said. “They should not take any seat for granted at this stage, considering how strong the Liberals are in some polls.”
Quebecers are paying close attention to Liberal Party proposals, says Claude Guay, the Liberal candidate in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun.
“What I’m most impressed [with] in this campaign is the number of people that tell me they go to our website, the website of Mr. Carney, the website of the Liberal Party, and actually go through the policies and the announcement,” said Guay.
“It’s heartwarming, because … we would wish that every election was like that — minus the threat that we’re going through right now. [That] we could live without.”
Bad policy, good politics
The French leaders’ debate focused largely on the leaders’ readiness to take on Trump and address tariffs, as well as cost of living concerns.
Opposition party leaders criticized the Liberal Party’s track record on affordability. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre noted housing costs have risen dramatically during the Trudeau years.
“Your Liberal government for 10 years has the worst track record on immigration, on housing, on immigration, on crime,” Poilievre said to Carney.
Poilievre said a Conservative government would make housing more affordable by incentivizing municipalities to reduce barriers that inhibit construction. Carney says a Liberal government would create a government agency to develop homes.
Both parties have also promised GST tax cuts to make homes more affordable. The Conservatives’ proposal is to cut the GST on new homes under $1.3 million; the Liberals would cut the GST for first-time home buyers on homes under $1 million.
Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet proposed building more social housing. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh promised to build 600,000 new affordable housing units and to cap prices on essential groceries.
However, none of the parties has signalled a willingness to touch supply management, which shields dairy, poultry and egg producers from global competition and keeps the cost of these foods high.
In interviews with Canadian Affairs, local candidates echoed their party leaders’ defence of supply management.
“We will always defend our dairy farmers,” said Neil Oberman, the Conservative candidate in Mount-Royal. “I don’t want to have consumer goods from foreign countries outstrip my local producer and my local business people.”
Craig Sauvé, NDP candidate in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, took a similar stance. “We believe in supply management in the NDP, we believe in planning our economy.”
But as Lander points out, supply management comes at the cost of affordability. “The gains of farmers by being protected from competition do not exceed the losses of consumers who have to pay more in Canada for every single dairy product that they buy.”
‘We need to have pipelines’
Two other issues of concern to Quebecers that came up during the debate were immigration and pipelines.
All party leaders said the previous pace of immigration under former prime minister Justin Trudeau was unsustainable.
Carney said a Liberal government would maintain immigration levels at the reduced rate introduced by the Trudeau government in October 2024.
Poilievre and Blanchet said they support reforms to how immigrants are assessed to ensure they do not make life less affordable for current Canadians.
“Why not hit the brake pedal, with kindness of course, why not slow things down until we have a good system and good public service for immigration,” Blanchet said in French. “The pace is far too quick.”
On pipeline development, Carney and Poilievre both said they support an eastern pipeline expansion through Quebec. Blanchet and Singh both said they opposed such a plan.
“The denial of the reality of climate change since the beginning of this campaign and the change of heart of Mr. Carney, who decided to be more conservative than Mr. Poilievre, is very harmful for our environment,” Blanchet said.
Carney said Canada must develop a robust oil sector to be less reliant on other countries.
“More oil so that we can reduce our imports — especially our imports from the United States,” said Carney. “In order to do that we need to have low-risk oil … we need to have pipelines.”
One of Blanchet’s quotes seems poorly translated to English (“Why not hitting the brake pedal”).
Thank you for your comment Mr. Guay. We have updated the quote.