For as long as the Trudeau government has been in power, the Montreal riding of LaSalle–Émard–Verdun has voted Liberal.
But another Liberal victory is by no means assured in Monday’s by-election.
Polling aggregator 338Canada says the riding is a “toss up” between the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois. On Sept. 8, it projected the Liberals would win 29 per cent of the vote, and the Bloc 28 per cent, with a seven-point margin of error. The NDP and Conservatives trail at 24 per cent and 13 per cent, respectively.
“This has been a Liberal riding for a long time,” a volunteer for the NDP campaign told Canadian Affairs on Friday. Canadian Affairs agreed to not name the individual, as the person was not authorized to speak on behalf of the party.
“There’s a chance to elect a progressive here for the first time in a long time, and that will send a pretty strong message to Trudeau that it’s time for some positive change.”
‘Work only for Quebec’
Former Liberal MP David Lametti won the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun riding in 2015, 2019 and 2021. A former McGill University law professor, Lametti served as justice minister and attorney general from 2019 to July 2023, when he was unexpectedly removed from cabinet as part of a cabinet shuffle. He resigned the following February, triggering Monday’s by-election.
The riding boasts a robust Francophone community, with about two-thirds of residents reporting French as their first language.
This dynamic creates an advantage for the Bloc Québécois, says Louis-Philippe Sauvé, the Bloc Québécois candidate in the riding. The party’s message to voters has been that it has a track record of working with different political parties to implement change that benefits Quebecers.
“We work only for Quebecers,” Sauvé said. “And to me, it’s a big advantage, because it gives us more capability of being current. When we build up public policies, we think about what should be the best way for Quebec?”
Both the Bloc and NDP share the belief that the government should fund and manage certain sectors, he says. But they disagree on which level of government should take on the funding and management.
“Unlike the NDP, we have a strong preoccupation with provincial jurisdiction,” said Sauvé. “The role of the federal government is to give the money to the provinces,” and for the provinces to manage the funds.
‘Paradise for the poor’
The Liberals, Bloc and NDP have all prioritized cost of living and housing affordability in their campaigns. A June 2024 national poll by Abacus Data identified cost of living and housing affordability as the top concerns of survey respondents.
“Housing is really the most discussed issue at the door, okay, especially in Verdun,” said Sauvé.
Sauvé recalls a time when, as a 23-year-old, he and a roommate paid $680 in rent for a four-and-a-half bedroom apartment that was within walking distance of a metro station.
“This kind of lifestyle is not possible anymore in Verdun,” said Sauvé.
In 2023, it cost $1,400 to rent a three-bedroom apartment in Montreal, according to a Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation survey. The most recent census data available shows the median after-tax household income in the riding is $44,107 and the median worker income is $44,856.
“The cost of living ballooned … Montreal used to be a place where it used to be a paradise for the poor.”
Sauvé says the Bloc will push for the federal government to provide more funding to Quebec to create and manage a housing program that fits the province’s needs.
The government’s current housing strategy focuses heavily on building high-rises, he says. This suits cities like Ottawa and Toronto, but not Montreal. “In Montreal, we don’t build big towers for, you know, affordable housing. We build … sixplex or eightplex,” he said.
The NDP is promising voters it would limit corporations from buying affordable housing, the NDP campaign volunteer said. And the party has vowed to force large grocery chains to either lower their prices or face price caps on essential foods.
Supply and confidence
The NDP has also been highlighting how social programs like pharmacare and dental care — which it pushed the minority-Liberals to introduce as part of their supply-and-confidence agreement — have helped address Canadians’ affordability concerns.
But Sauvé sees things differently.
“I think that building federal social program[s] over what we’ve built in Quebec is a mistake,” he said. He pointed to the example of a national pharmacare program, which now covers a number of contraceptives and diabetes medications. Quebec has offered provincial coverage for prescription medications for more than 20 years, he says.
The NDP campaign volunteer said voters have been asking why the NDP pulled out of the supply-and confidence agreement.
“[We tell them] we got some programs. It’s not the programs we would have done. It’s programs that we, you know, had to drag [the Liberals] kicking and screaming to do, frankly, and even then, it wasn’t enough,” the person said.
“And then we broke the agreement when it was clear that there wasn’t anywhere else we could go … And when folks hear that, they’re receptive to it.”
The Liberal candidate for LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, Laura Palestini, did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
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