B.C. Premier David Eby called an election while his opponents were struggling to keep their party together.
Now, polls suggest he may finish the campaign by handing them the government.
An Oct. 19 poll by the Angus Reid Institute put the BC Conservatives at 46 per cent among decided and leaning voters, ahead of the NDP’s 43 per cent.
The election gave the Conservatives “a really strong incentive to get their act together,” said Jon Roe, a senior research associate at Angus Reid.
But turmoil within the Conservative party has also obscured the government’s own vulnerability on issues such as affordability and health care.
“Even at times when the Conservatives were in disarray earlier in the year, we did have the Conservatives polling ahead of the NDP,” Roe said. In Angus Reid’s last poll before Eby’s election call, the NDP held a mere four-per-cent lead.
The calculation
The NDP narrowly won a majority in the 2024 election, taking 47 of the legislature’s 93 seats.
The Conservative opposition has been in turmoil for much of the intervening period, with infighting between the party’s populist and more centrist factions.
That schism has persisted through changes in leadership.
Former Conservative leader John Rustad resigned in December 2025. Kerry-Lynne Findlay was narrowly chosen as the party’s new leader in May 2026.
Findlay stayed in the role for less than four months. Following a series of caucus defections and expulsions, she resigned Sept. 20. Lorne Doerkson, an MLA since 2020, was chosen as interim leader that same day.
Two days later, Eby called an election, saying he wanted a stronger mandate to respond to President Donald Trump’s trade war and threats.
The vote comes two years early. Under B.C.’s fixed election law, the next election was not due to be held until October 2028.
Carson Binda, the Conservative candidate in Vancouver-Quilchena, says he hears from voters who are displeased with Eby’s election call.
“At the doors, I’ve heard time and time again from British Columbians who don’t understand this decision; frankly, who would have rather seen that money go towards frontline services or tax cuts,” said Binda, who was formerly the B.C. director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation..
Conservative commentator Adam Beattie says Eby overestimated the divisions across the aisle.
On Sept. 22, the day of Eby’s election call, seven legislators from the breakaway CentreBC party announced they were returning to the BC Conservatives.
“I think Eby very callously believed that he would be able to get a stronger majority out of this and another four years of governance,” said Beattie, who has gained major social media followings under the username @iamrobinskies.
“The reality is that [Findlay] was elected legitimately for her position but ended up being sort of the wedge within the organization.
“And once she was ousted, most people just said, ‘Okay, cool. Can we get back to being friends again?’”
Beattie acknowledges some Conservative supporters remain disgruntled with their party. But they share a compelling reason to reunite. “We can all agree that we dislike the NDP more,” he said.
Roe, for his part, says Doerkson offers a less controversial, more centrist face than the party’s recent leaders — and that he has “a bit more of a clean slate” because he is a relatively unknown public figure.
What voters want
While Eby has said Trump was a reason for calling the election, polling shows voters’ concerns rest closer to home.
In an Oct. 5 Angus Reid survey, 57 per cent named the cost of living as their top concern, followed by health care at 42 per cent. Just 10 per cent identified U.S. tariffs, Trump and the alcohol ban as a top priority.
Binda, the Conservative candidate, says he also hears from voters about affordability concerns.
“Number one that I hear time and time again is the economy,” said Binda. “It’s the cost of living.”
The Conservatives have promised to reduce the personal income tax by up to $1,000 annually by raising the basic personal exemption.
They have also pledged to remove the provincial sales tax on Canadian alcohol during the trade war, as well as on purchases and leases of machinery, equipment and business software for three years.
On health care, the Conservatives have proposed a $50-million emergency fund for rural medical practices.
The NDP did not respond to requests for comment for this story.
The party’s platform proposes procurement rules that favour Canadian suppliers and loans for tariff-hit businesses. It also promises to suspend a provincial motor fuel tax and cap retailers’ profit margins on grocery staples.
The NDP has promised to improve health care by adding 20 team-based primary care clinics and making it easier for qualified international medical graduates to practice.
Eby has said he would increase income taxes on people earning more than $190,000 to pay for better health care.
“We won’t cut healthcare and so we need to be honest about how we pay for it,” Eby said in an Oct. 4 announcement.
The path to victory
The Conservatives’ narrow polling lead could translate into a decisive advantage in seats.
An Oct. 21 projection by polling analyst Éric Grenier favoured the Conservatives in 52 ridings and the NDP in 39.
Metro Vancouver remains closely divided in Angus Reid’s latest survey. Roe also identifies Vancouver Island as crucial: three-way races can favour Conservatives when NDP and Green supporters divide their votes.
The centrist CentreBC and right-wing OneBC complicate the picture. But neither party is running candidates in every riding.
“I think what we’ll end up seeing on election day is a lot of strategic voting because it is going to be a close race,” Roe said.
The latest Angus Reid survey found 73 per cent of Conservative supporters are very certain of their choice, compared with 54 per cent of NDP supporters.
Roe credits Eby with a composed debate performance and says renewed concern about Trump could help him. Still, a campaign dominated by affordability and health care invites scrutiny of what the NDP has delivered.
“I think the track record becomes more important to voters,” he said.
