Alberta’s separatists may lose in Monday’s referendum and still emerge with a strategic victory.
The margin of a potential loss will help determine whether the separatist movement retreats or becomes a lasting force in provincial politics, says Matt Solberg, a former executive director of government caucus for the governing United Conservative Party.
“I think margin really matters,” he said.
On Oct. 19, Albertans will vote on whether they want their province to begin the process to hold a binding referendum on separation.
An Oct. 8 Leger survey of Albertans found 70 per cent favoured remaining in Canada, while 22 per cent supported beginning that process. Seven per cent were undecided.
Solberg says a decisive defeat in Monday’s referendum would give Premier Danielle Smith greater freedom to move past the issue. But a narrow result could fracture the UCP and sustain the separation debate through successive elections.
“[I]t’ll become an evergreen campaign,” he said.
“ And that’s where the societal and economic fractures start to form.”
Beyond the ballot
Cameron Davies is leader of the pro-separation Republican Party of Alberta, a registered political party that has never held a legislative seat.
Davies says he would regard a strong show of support for a referendum as a sign of success — even if that support falls well short of a majority.
“If it’s above 30 per cent, you’re doing victory laps,” said Davies, who finished third in a 2025 by-election in the Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills riding.
That number would mean “it’s a sizable segment of Alberta voters who believe that Canada is broken beyond repair and that independence is the best path forward,” he said.
Below 20 per cent, the movement would need to overhaul its methods and prepare to spend years pushing its message, Davies says.
Alberta’s independence movement is currently fractured across several parties and advocacy groups. The province does not have a dominant separatist party comparable to Quebec’s Parti Québécois, which won the Quebec provincial election last week.
Davies’ Republican Party of Alberta, which first registered in 2022 as the Buffalo Party of Alberta, is one of three registered parties advocating for independence, alongside The Independence Party of Alberta and the Wildrose Independence Party of Alberta.
These parties are distinct from the Alberta Prosperity Project, a separatist group that gathered more than 300,000 signatures backing an independence referendum. That group was instrumental in getting the Smith government to add an independence question to the October referendum.
[T]hrough disjointed efforts, and through various methods of advancing the independence message, we have collectively been successful in bringing the conversation to the mainstream,” Davies said.
Davies rejects the Alberta Prosperity Project’s approach of pursuing independence through the United Conservative Party. He would prefer for a separatist party to push for secession in the legislature.
“We’ve been focused on the political solution,” said Davies. “They’ve been focused on the citizen-led [solution] within the apparatus of the United Conservative Party.
“Similar objectives, different ways of getting there.”
Davies says more than 65 people have expressed interest in representing the Republican Party of Alberta in the next provincial election. It is “extremely likely” the party will run a full slate of candidates in that election, he says.
The province currently has 87 ridings, but is expected to have added four more ridings by the next election.
Pressure on Smith
For Smith, it may prove easier to get a resounding ‘no’ vote in Monday’s referendum than to secure agreement within her own party.
The Oct. 8 Leger survey shows UCP supporters are divided on the independence question. In the poll, 48 per cent of respondents who expressed intentions to vote UCP in the next election said they favoured beginning the separation process. This compared with 43 per cent who preferred remaining.
Solberg identifies the UCP’s Nov. 27 annual general meeting and upcoming nomination contests as opportunities for separatists to exert influence within the party after the referendum.
“There’s a number of folks … talking about sending a message and putting the premier on notice,” said Solberg, noting they may resist Smith’s effort to turn the page on this file.
“Some of them are talking about even trying to replace her.”
Smith has said that, if a majority of Albertans vote against a binding referendum on Monday, there will be no further separation referendum while she is premier.
However, the citizen initiative rules Smith introduced in 2025 could complicate this commitment.
Under Alberta law, citizens who gather the requisite number of signatures are entitled to have their referendum proposal referred to cabinet for a constitutional referendum.
In December 2025, the Smith government repealed a five-year restriction on similar, previously defeated proposals from being reintroduced on a referendum.
However, the Alberta government notes that separate 2026 amendments removed deadlines for holding referendums arising from successful petitions.
In an email and phone call with Canadian Affairs, Smith’s office did not address how it would reconcile these legal obligations with Smith’s pledge to not hold another independence referendum.
“The Premier looks forward to seeing the direction Albertans give us on October 19th and will respect and honour the results,” Smith’s press secretary, Sam Blackett, said in an emailed statement to Canadian Affairs. “We expect all Albertans to do the same.”
“We hope to get a strong mandate from Albertans on our other nine questions and for remaining in Canada, so that we can continue our work to build a stronger Alberta within a united Canada.”
What comes after
Solberg expects many separatist voters would accept a decisive defeat and redirect their efforts toward strengthening Alberta’s economy and autonomy within Canada.
But he says strong political leadership will be key to redirecting some of the angry activism that has been a part of Albertan politics in recent years.
“ I think there is an opportunity for those strong feelings and those activist members of the party … to be put to work doing something else,” said Solberg.
Federalists are preparing to remain organized, too.
Thomas Lukaszuk, a former Alberta deputy premier who leads the federalist Forever Canadian group, says the organization has more than 18,000 registered volunteers and active supporters.
The group will continue promoting national cohesion after the referendum, Lukaszuk says, although he declined to detail any specific plans.
“ We have more members than most political parties, so of course we will be continuously promoting unity and the best interest of Alberta and Canada for sure.”
“Forever Canadian is not going away,” he said.
On Oct. 15, Prime Minister Mark Carney joined a Forever Canadian rally in Calgary, where he urged Albertans to deliver a decisive result against an independence referendum.
“A vote against Canada is a dangerous bluff that will lead to years of deep uncertainty and lost opportunities for Albertans and Canadians,” Carney said at the rally.
For Lukaszuk, lasting unity also requires greater honesty about the grievances driving alienation. He argues Alberta politicians have long blamed Ottawa for problems within provincial jurisdiction, diverting attention from solutions.
“What we need to be focusing on is actually solving problems.”
