New data from Statistics Canada show Canada’s population grew in the 12 months ending July 1.
The revised data contrasts with earlier data that showed Canada’s population had actually been shrinking over several quarters.
The agency’s quarterly update, released Sept. 23, shows the country’s population grew by 0.5 per cent year-over-year. This is the lowest growth level since the Second World War, but reflects an upwards revision from Statistics Canada’s data from prior quarters.
As of July 1, Canada’s population sat at about 41.8 million people. This figure is the total of resident citizens, permanent residents and temporary residents in the country.
Statistic Canada’s adjustment could significantly affect earlier per-capita GDP estimates, RBC economist Rachel Battaglia wrote in a Wednesday report.
“Stronger backward looking population growth takes some of the shine off recent GDP growth estimates when measured on a per-capita basis,” she wrote.
Over the past decade, Canada’s total economy grew, but the majority of that growth came from admitting more people, rather than workers becoming more productive.
Battaglia estimated the revised numbers put Canada’s year-over-year per-capita GDP growth at 0.7 per cent — a full percentage point lower than previous estimates.
Adjusted numbers
Statistics Canada attributed its data adjustments in part to a migration context that has “evolved rapidly.”
“The larger-than-usual update in 2026 is mainly related to estimates of non-permanent residents,” Statistics Canada’s communications officer Maryse Carrière told Canadian Affairs in an email. Non-permanent residents, also called temporary residents, include individuals on student, work or visitors’ visas.
Carrière added that adjustments to population estimates are not uncommon for Statistics Canada.
Statistics Canada’s temporary resident numbers have long been based on assumptions that people whose temporary visas expire leave the country, Canadian Affairs reported in November, 2025.
But many do not leave. For example, between January 2023 and July 2025, nearly 70,000 people who entered Canada on student or work visas filed asylum claims — a move that can extend their time in Canada by several years.
An additional factor cited by Statistics Canada for the revisions is new data from the Canada Border Services Agency.
The Canada Border Services Agency collects data on who enters and exits the country, but only recently began sharing this data with Statistics Canada.
“The acquisition of border crossing data will make it possible to enhance our migration estimates, notably for people leaving Canada,” a Statistics Canada spokesperson told Canadian Affairs in November, 2025.
Policy change
Canada saw over one million new arrivals annually in 2022 to 2024, primarily from temporary residents.
The Trudeau and Carney governments ultimately scaled back immigration targets in response to mounting public concerns over elevated immigration levels.
Ottawa’s annual targets for new permanent residents in 2026 to 2028 is 380,000. This target implies that many of the recent temporary resident arrivals will see their visa expires without achieving permanent residency.
This could further push up asylum and refugee claims. As of August 2026, there were about 259,000 such claims at the Immigration and Refugee Board, up from about 70,000 at the end of 2022.
Battaglia, the RBC economist, says growth outlooks for employment and housing markets also look bleaker as a result of the revisions.
“We now expect the period of most significant population deceleration to unfold ahead of us rather than behind us,” she wrote.
“[This] could extend downward pressure on housing markets,” she added.
The revisions could also impact the Bank of Canada’s upcoming interest rate decisions.
“The BoC will be closely monitoring these indicators ahead of their next policy decision in October,” she wrote, noting the impact on GDP could reduce urgency to hike rates.
“[B]ut with the BoC increasingly focused on ‘risks’ from energy prices it makes the October meeting a difficult decision.”
