Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first Canada Investment Summit produced what the federal government says is nearly $500 billion in new investment commitments.
The two-day summit in Toronto produced several major announcements. These include a potential $52.5-billion expansion of Bell Canada’s AI data centre project in Saskatchewan, nearly $100 billion in additional investment by major Canadian institutional investors, and plans to bring private capital into the country’s four largest airports.
But translating investment announcements into projects can take years, experts say. And some of the announcements represent potential investment capacity rather than capital committed to specific projects.
“Investors value certainty,” said Walid Hejazi, a professor of economic analysis and policy at the University of Toronto.
“Canada’s challenge is not a lack of opportunity. It’s ensuring that projects can be approved, built, and scaled quickly enough to compete for global capital.”
Ambitious target
The summit drew leaders of some of the world’s largest investment funds, including BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, Norges Bank Investment Management CEO Nicolai Tangen and Apollo CEO Marc Rowan. Heads of major Canadian institutional investors included CPP Investments CEO John Graham and PSP Investments CEO Deborah Orida.
The attendee list also included former prime ministers Jean Chrétien and Stephen Harper, who is board chair at AIMCo, Alberta’s investment management fund.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has said the government wants to generate $1 trillion in total investment in Canada over five years.
Hejazi says that is an ambitious target.
“Currently there is $1.6 trillion of foreign investment in Canada; so adding $1 trillion is a very tall order,” he said.
While Canada has the capacity to absorb significant foreign investment, Hejazi says attracting it will require greater policy certainty, faster regulatory approvals and improvements to infrastructure, housing and access to skilled workers.
“Canada would need to commit to enhancing the environment to make investing in Canada more attractive,” said Hejazi.
“Canada needs to signal and demonstrate we are open to foreign investors and will do all we can to facilitate the process and not impede it.”
Billions announced
On Monday, Carney, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe and Bell Canada CEO Mirko Bibic announced a potential expansion of Bell’s AI data centre project in Saskatchewan.
The project could eventually become a 1.2-gigawatt AI infrastructure hub outside Regina with an estimated total capital investment up to $52.5 billion.
Moe said the expansion is intended to strengthen Canadian data sovereignty.
“Do we build the infrastructure necessary to keep Canadian data in Canada, or do we leave our data sovereignty in the hands of other countries?” he said Monday.
The summit also produced plans for nearly $100 billion in additional investment by major Canadian institutional investors.
The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and Brookfield Asset Management announced a framework to contribute up to $25 billion each over five years to large-scale Canadian infrastructure and strategic industries through a so-called “Maple Fund.” No individual investments have yet been announced.
The Public Sector Pension Investment Board also announced it would increase its Canadian investments by 30 to 40 per cent, representing an additional $25 billion and bringing its total Canadian investments to $100 billion.
Tara Vinodrai, a professor of economic development and innovation at the University of Toronto, says it will take time to determine whether the summit produces tangible results.
“In economic development, there is always a risk … that a firm will invest but then the promised benefits are not realized,” she said in an email.
It can also be difficult to monitor or enforce promised outcomes, she says.
Tax, infrastructure
On Tuesday, the government also announced measures intended to make investment in Canada more attractive.
A new Productivity Mega Deduction will make permanent a rule allowing businesses to write off capital expenses against their tax bills. It will also lower Canada’s marginal effective tax rate on new business investment from roughly 13 per cent to 6.4 per cent — “the lowest of any major economy in the world and less than half the rate in the United States,” the federal government said in a press release.
Drew Fagan, a professor at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, describes the shift from Budget 2025’s proposed “super” deduction to a “mega” deduction as a major move toward tax reform.
“If we’re going to attract a lot more money at a time when the country’s facing [an] unprecedented challenge, we’re going to have to offer pretty good returns,” Fagan said in an interview.
The government also announced plans to seek private investment to operate Calgary, Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver’s international airports through long-term concessions while retaining ownership of the underlying land and assets. Ottawa expects the arrangements to raise tens of billions of dollars.
“Canada’s a laggard on this,” said Fagan. He sees opening the airports to new investment as a logical and overdue step, pointing to similar approaches in the United Kingdom, France and Australia.
Canada’s challenge, Fagan says, is not a lack of interest among pension funds in domestic investment, but a shortage of investable assets such as toll roads and stable infrastructure.
The airport could create more opportunities for institutional investors, he says.
Was it a success?
For Vinodrai, Canada’s advantages as an investment destination extend beyond taxes.
She points to public schools, universities and colleges, publicly funded health care, a highly skilled workforce and the diversity of Canada’s population as factors that can help attract investment and talent.
But she says those advantages should not be taken for granted.
“If governments don’t maintain investments in these underlying, less appreciated aspects of the investment terrain, then there is a longer term risk,” she said.
Whether the summit ultimately delivers will take longer to assess. Hejazi says it could take years to measure the economic effects of major investment decisions, as multi-billion-dollar projects take time to move through approvals and other stages.
Vinodrai says Canadians will need to look beyond announcements to whether they produce tangible outcomes, including “more and better jobs.”
That concern was echoed by protesters gathered outside the Art Gallery of Ontario Monday night, where police stopped them from reaching the summit’s gala dinner.
Demonstrators raised concerns about foreign ownership, fossil fuel investments, Indigenous rights and environmental impacts, as well as job security and the quality of employment for Canadians.
For Hejazi, the measure of the sumit’s success ultimately comes down to the kind of investment it generates.
“The real issue is not whether Canada can attract more investment,” he said. “It’s whether Canada can attract the kind of investment that raises productivity, creates high-value jobs, transfers technology, and strengthens our long-term competitiveness.
“The quality of investment matters as much as the quantity,” he added. “This is very important for the future prosperity and resilience of the Canadian economy.”
