The Liberals entered Parliament’s summer break with a majority, but political analysts say this time could prove to be a key test for the governing party — and the Conservatives and NDP.
The results of three byelections on Aug. 31 — two of which are in Liberal ridings — may indicate whether the Conservative Opposition or third-place NDP can take a bite out of the Liberals’ overall popularity.
Here is what some political analysts say each party should focus on during the byelections and before the House resumes Sept. 21.
Liberals still lead
A July 16 poll from Abacus Data shows 52 per cent of Canadians approve of Mark Carney’s government.
Of decided voters, 43 per cent said they would cast a vote for the Liberals. The Conservatives had the support of a not-too-distant 37 per cent and the NDP, nine per cent.
President Donald Trump’s tariffs, and his threats of more, have only helped the Liberals’ popularity.
“For now, Canadians want a government that is defending Canada, pushing back against Trump, but at the same time keeping the channels open in terms of discussing a potential trade deal,” said Daniel Beland, a political scientist at McGill University.
Support for the Liberals has remained strong, despite the U.S. choosing to not renew CUSMA on July 1 for another 16-year term. Preserving the free trade agreement has been a key priority for the Carney government.
Another July poll from Abacus Data found 69 per cent of Canadians believe the government should hold firm to its current trade positions with the United States instead of compromising to speed up negotiations.
“There’s a sense that a bad deal might be worse than no deal,” said Beland.
But the Liberals should not take their support for granted, says Hilary Martin, principal of opinion research at Earnscliffe Strategies, a public affairs firm.
“Anything can happen,” said Martin, who previously worked for the Prime Minister’s Office when Justin Trudeau was in power.
She points to the Liberals’ low popularity among younger voters as a sign of concern. According to Earnscliffe research, only 15 per cent of Canadians 35 to 54 say they would vote for the Liberals, while 23 per cent said they would vote for the Conservatives.
The Liberals have not been focusing as much on “pocketbook issues,” said Martin, and affordability is a main concern for younger voters.
The byelections are “very important,” said Beland, because if the Liberals win three more seats it would further solidify their majority.
Two of the ridings with Aug. 31 byelections were held by Liberals. Nate Erskine-Smith easily won Toronto’s Beaches-East York riding in last year’s election, as did Jonathan Wilkinson, a former cabinet minister, in North Vancouver-Capilano.
However, the outcome in the Quebec riding of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord is less certain, Beland says. Conservative Richard Martel won with about 34 per cent of the vote in 2025, while the Liberal’s Stéphane Proulx garnered about 31 per cent.
Nelson Wiseman, a retired political science professor at the University of Toronto, says the Liberals could win that riding, but if they do it will be a narrow victory.
He also sees Trump as key to the ongoing public support for Carney.
“Carney’s popularity is going to decline, and it’s very unusual that it has been this high for this long, but that’s because we’re in a very unusual environment.”
Internal conflict
Most news coming out of the Conservatives lately has been speculation about divisions within the party.
In early July, Ben Woodfinden, former director of communications for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, wrote on X that he was “depressed” by the state of Conservative politics.
Some say the party’s internal squabbling is keeping it from being effective and properly critiquing the government.
The party “needs to stop the bleeding,” said Christopher Martin-Chan, a senior consultant at New West Public Affairs who spent nearly a decade working for the federal Conservatives and the Ontario Progressive Conservatives.
The party’s message should be focused on pressing the government on affordability concerns, not on internal party divisions, he says.
The byelections “are a challenge the Conservatives should rise to,” he said, particularly the one in Quebec. But even in the Vancouver and Toronto byelections, the party needs to show it can capture a significant share of votes, he says.
The party needs to “get the house together and everyone on the same page,” said Martin at Earnscliffe.
A NDP rebuild
The NDP may have the hardest task of any of the main federal parties.
The party’s new leader, Avi Lewis, is not a member of Parliament and will not be running in any of the upcoming byelections.
And the party does not have a strong track record in these three ridings.
Its 2025 candidates in Beaches-East York and Chicoutimi—Le Fjord took just under seven per cent and two per cent of the vote, respectively. No candidate has yet been named for North Vancouver-Capilano, where the NDP took just over four per cent in 2025.
Wiseman says it will be difficult for Lewis to gain more support with Canadians if he does not run in a byelection. “The most important thing is to get [Lewis’] name out there, but he’s not running.”
But Beland, at McGill, thinks a Lewis loss would only hurt the party.
“Running for the sake of running when you think that you’re unlikely to win is not a good thing when you’re a leader,” he said.
The Liberals may be bleeding some support to the NDP.
A July 29 report from research firm Angus Reid Institute says that 21 per cent of voters choose climate change as their top political issue, up from 14 per cent in March. Among those who voted for the Liberals in 2025, 15 per cent said they would vote for the NDP.
“If Canadians who are strongly concerned about the environment, and they believe that the Liberals are no longer even trying, then that could be a window of opportunity for the NDP,” said Beland.
