The nation’s eyes will be fixated on Alberta when it votes in October on whether to hold an independence referendum. But a mere two weeks earlier, Quebecers will hold a general election — a vote that could lead to a third referendum on Quebec’s place in Canada.
The factors driving support for sovereignty in each province are starkly different. Alberta’s movement is anchored around resentment toward the federal government. Meanwhile, Quebec’s primarily turns on fears about a loss of culture and language.
“I think a lot of what’s going on in Alberta is about grievances towards the federal government and towards the treatment that Alberta has received in the country,” said Charles Breton, executive director at the Centre of Excellence on the Canadian Federation at the Institute for Research on Public Policy.
“I don’t think that’s the main thing about the sovereignty movement in Quebec,” said Breton. Breton has created a “resentment index” to understand how Albertans and Quebecers feel about their place in Canada.
“Yes, there are grievances towards Canada [in Quebec],” he added. “But it’s much more coming internally, and about wanting to emancipate Quebec, for whatever reason, around French language.”
‘New chapter’
If Alberta chooses to hold a referendum, it will be a first for the province. Quebec, by contrast, has already voted on separation twice before.
Under a Parti Québécois (PQ) government, the province held its first referendum in 1980. Nearly 40 per cent of Quebecers voted to leave.
The PQ held a second referendum in 1995. There, the result was razor thin, with 49.42 per cent voting to leave.
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, an outspoken, Oxford-educated lawyer, is the current leader of the PQ. He has said his party would table a referendum in its first term if the party wins a majority.
“A new political cycle has indeed begun. A new chapter in our history is opening before us,” said St-Pierre Plamondon during a January PQ convention in Saint-Hyacinthe.
The PQ is ahead in provincial polls, but a June 17 poll shows a three-way race developing. Both the incumbent Coalition Avenir Quebec and the Quebec Liberal Party have gained traction after electing new leaders.
The same poll found that just 31 per cent of Quebecers would support independence.
Daniel Béland, director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada, says many PQ supporters may not actually favour another referendum.
“Some people might like the PQ’s … overall vision, but they don’t necessarily support the third referendum, and that’s kind of a source of tension,” he said. The party has also promised reforms to immigration, health care and education as central parts of its pitch to voters.
Breton agrees, noting support for the PQ is not necessarily correlated with support for sovereignty.
“Vote intentions for the PQ move up and down … they were closer to 40 per cent six months ago, and now they’re back to 30.
“Support for sovereignty doesn’t move … it’s not swinging like vote intentions,” he said.
But an emotional referendum campaign could swing public opinion, says Breton. More than half of respondents in an October 2025 report described themselves as neither federalist or sovereigntist, suggesting many could be swayed.
“So much can happen during a referendum campaign. Even if you look at ‘95, the end result was not what it looked like the first day of the campaign. It’s very hard to predict.”
Resentment index
Breton says Albertans exhibit a resentment towards the rest of the country that is not present among most Quebecers.
His centre’s resentment index is based on an annual survey that includes questions on whether residents feel respected, receive proportionate federal funding, and have a distinct and misunderstood culture.
Since 2022, when the centre first conducted its survey, Albertans have shown a consistently high level of resentment towards their place in the Canadian federation compared to residents of other provinces.
It also found that United Conservative Party of Alberta voters were far more disenfranchised with their place in Canada than other Alberta voters. By comparison, PQ voters had only slightly higher levels of resentment toward Canada than the rest of Quebec voters.
Béland draws a distinction between nationalism in Quebec and Western regionalism, where people in B.C., Alberta and Saskatchewan feel poorly treated by the federal government. Like Breton, he says separatists in Quebec are primarily motivated to protect their culture and the French language.
“Economic elements and fiscal elements like equalization … have been criticized a lot in Alberta. These things are not that important in Quebec.”
A 2025 report by the IRPP found that over seven in 10 francophone Quebecers felt that their language is threatened — much higher levels than in 1990 and 2000.
“There is a consensus in Quebec that the French language is threatened, so this is something that all parties need to navigate,” Breton said.
Camille Goyette-Gingras, president of Organisations unies pour l’independance (OUI) Québec, a Montreal-based sovereigntist group, also sees few similarities between the two independence movements.
“The base of the Albertan movement is very different from Quebec’s,” she said.
For both provinces, energy and environmental policies are key — but from opposite sides of the spectrum.
Recent polling shows 28 per cent of Quebecers favour limiting new oil and gas infrastructure to meet climate goals — the highest level in the country. Meanwhile, 36 per cent of Albertans favour prioritizing oil and gas development regardless of climate targets — also the highest level in the country.
Goyette-Gingras argues that the energy industry’s impact on the Canadian dollar hurts Quebec’s economy by driving up the value of the Canadian dollar — something she believes could be resolved if Quebec separated.
“As we are an exporter country, we prefer that the value of the dollar is lower,” she said.
“Because [Quebec’s] energy is mainly based around renewable energies, we will want to push those energies. And historically, Canada has had little interest in financing renewable energies in Quebec.”
Trump’s impact
Another factor that differentiates the two separatism movements is views on the United States.
Leaders of the Alberta Prosperity Project, the separatist group driving Alberta’s sovereignty movement, have met repeatedly with U.S. government officials. In January, the Financial Times reported the group was seeking a credit facility to bankroll the province in the event of a successful independence referendum.
In Quebec, the Trump administration’s trade war and 51st state comments may have tempered enthusiasm for separatism.
In last April’s federal election, the Bloc Quebecois lost 10 seats, while the Liberals gained nine. Prime Minister Mark Carney enjoys a high level of support among Quebec voters, with 60 per cent of Quebecers holding a positive opinion of Carney according to a recent poll.
But Goyette-Gingras notes that Quebecers have in the past voted for strong federalist leaders while also backing sovereignty.
“You have to remember that people voted for René Lévesque and Pierre Elliott Trudeau at the same time,” she said.
Béland sees the PQ strategy as playing for time.
“I think the hope for the PQ is that they win the majority government, they wait until the Trump storm is over.”
“After that it might be more fertile ground for a potential victory at a referendum.”
Breton sees St-Pierre Plamondon sidelining the sovereignty issue in his election campaign, even though he has made it a central promise.
“I don’t think he’s going to want to talk about the referendum that much during the campaign,” he said.
“Although on the actual referendum, he’s been pretty clear he wants to have one.”
