Pivotal byelections Monday look set to give Prime Minister Mark Carney a majority in parliament, boosting his party as it moves to overhaul an economy threatened by the United States.
Carney’s Liberals won the most seats in elections a year ago, but fell just short of a majority.
Canadians are voting in three districts on Monday — two Toronto areas seen as Liberal strongholds to fill vacated seats, and a Quebec district expected to be nail-biter between the Liberal and the separatist candidate from the Bloc Quebecois.
If the Liberals hold the two Toronto seats, as expected, they’ll take full control of parliament.
Carney has improved his party’s fortunes by sticking firmly to a message focused on President Donald Trump, arguing the U.S. leader has upended the world order and Canada needs to take bold action in response.
Carney has announced massive increases in military spending — insisting Canada can no longer rely on Washington for security — and has traveled the globe seeking new trade deals in Asia and Europe.
Liberal poll numbers are higher than they were a year ago, and the party has pulled off a stunning set of defections from the opposition benches — poaching four Conservatives and one New Democratic into the Liberal caucus.
“Members of parliament have switched sides to join our team,” Carney said to a gathering of Liberals on Saturday.
“They understand how important the stakes are. They are convinced that together, we can do better,” he said, insisting “this is not the time for politics as usual.”
‘Historic moment’
Canadians have been shaken by Trump’s return to power.
The president’s tariffs in key sectors have forced job losses in Canada and slowed growth, even if the majority of bilateral trade remains tariff free.
Trump has threatened to annex Canada and mocked Carney and former prime minister Justin Trudeau as the “governor” of a U.S. state.
For University of Ottawa political scientist Genevieve Tellier, Carney has built momentum by “emphasizing the historic moment we are living through.”
“We’ve rarely seen popularity ratings this high one year after coming to power,” she said, saying Carney was working to build “a broad national coalition” to respond to the unprecedented geopolitical moment.
In the Quebec district of Terrebonne where voting was underway Monday, Ramon Ponce, a 72-year-old retiree, said the results could “somewhat strengthen” Carney’s government in the ongoing friction with Trump.
Affordability problems
While the Liberals remain a political juggernaut, some see hints of vulnerability starting to emerge.
The Angus Reid Institute found last month that “concerns over the high cost of living are higher than they have been in recent memory for lower-income Canadians.”
Grocery prices are up more than 20 per cent since 2022 and unemployment is at 6.7 per cent.
Opposition parties are arguing Carney’s soaring rhetoric about economic transformation has failed to make lives more affordable for Canadians.
Some voters agree.
“He talks a good game but nothing ever changes,” David Gilhooly, a voter in Toronto said last week.
Polls close at 8:30 p.m. and results should be available within hours.
