The recent killing of the head of one of Mexico’s most powerful drug cartels has sparked chaos in Mexico.
On Feb. 22, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” was wounded in a firefight with Mexican security forces and later died while being transported to Mexico City. El Mencho had led the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) for more than a decade.
In the immediate aftermath, gunmen set vehicles on fire and attacked businesses in retaliation. Authorities reported more than 250 highway blockades across several states, disrupting airports, tourist centres and urban cores.
El Mencho’s death has potential ripple effects for Canada.
CJNG is a major upstream supplier of fentanyl and methamphetamine to Canadian streets, often via U.S. intermediaries and domestic organized crime groups.
While Mexican authorities hail El Mencho’s death as a victory against organized crime, analysts caution that cartel “decapitation” often brings short-term instability and long-term fragmentation.
To assess what the killing means for Canada, Canadian Affairs reporter Alexandra Keeler spoke with Alejandro García Magos, a political science professor at the University of Toronto, who specializes in organized crime and the political roots of cartel violence.
This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.
AK: When a major Mexican cartel undergoes leadership upheaval, what cross-border effects are typically felt in countries like Canada?
AGM: Whenever the cartel gets beheaded, it is like a hydra. There’s more heads that pop up, the business is still there. What typically happens is some sort of fragmentation and realignment. Cartels also become more flexible and more based on networks.
Drug trafficking is not stopping, it’s just a reorganization … smaller cartels will appear.
AK: Could instability within a major cartel lead to changes in drug prices, purity or availability in Canada?
AGM: In the short term, we’ll probably see some increase in the price of drugs on the street.
We also need to consider … that criminal organizations and these cartels do not only do drug trafficking. They have a portfolio of activities that include extortion, kidnapping, etc., but even legal activities like the production of limes and avocados.
The sources of income of the criminal organizations are quite varied … so the financial impact of the killing of El Mencho is going to be felt in other aspects, not only on the drug side.
I also think that the purity of fentanyl — not that we would ever call a drug as poisonous as fentanyl “pure” — will go down because there’s going to be less supply but demand remains the same, meaning that the quality is going to be more and more diluted.
AK: Historically, when Mexican cartels fracture after things like leadership losses, does violence remain concentrated in Mexico, or can it spill into foreign markets?
AGM: Whenever this has happened, we see in the short-term a flare-up of violence in the areas where these groups have a presence. A rearrangement of their zones of influence — sort of a turf war — as they are trying to establish the new order.
I cannot see how Mexican violence will mean an increase in drug-related violence in Canada. The drug-related violence that we see in Canada responds to its own logic, to their own criminal networks that fight for territory, vendettas or money. Mexican cartels are simply the suppliers of a product.
AK: In a broad sense, when one of the heads of the hydra is cut off, does this improve public safety in Canada, or could it create greater risks by disrupting these markets?
AGM: It’s a good thing.
The Mexican state is recovering territory and is recovering presence in areas they have lost or they have allowed the criminals to control. You see extortion. You see kidnappings. You see highways that are not a good idea to be on at night.
Even if we cannot eliminate criminal activities, the fact that this particular cartel is now being beheaded is good news. It’s good news for Mexicans and it’s good news for people that visit, like Canadians.
