Ottawa has pledged to reduce the size of Canada’s temporary resident population to five per cent of the population by the end of 2026.
But the government’s progress in achieving this target is muddied by a lack of clarity over how many temporary residents remain in Canada after their visas expire.
In September, Statistics Canada reported a net reduction of 58,719 temporary residents in the second quarter of the year. But this is not a count of physical exits. It is a modelled estimate based on Immigration, Refugee and Citizenship Canada’s administrative files.
In short, it is a calculation of who should have left, not proof of who has left.
“We rely on … what I think is an inappropriate assumption that everybody whose permit expires suddenly has left the country,” said Robert Falconer, a researcher on immigration policy at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy.
“We know that’s not the case.”
Quantity unknown
The question of how many temporary residents are in Canada has become a key one ever since the federal government pledged to scale back immigration levels in 2024.
That year, in response to mounting public concerns over elevated immigration, Ottawa said it would reduce Canada’s temporary resident population by nearly half a million people in both 2025 and 2026.
Each quarter, Statistics Canada publishes an estimate of how many temporary residents are in the country. A Statistics Canada spokesperson explained its methodology for producing this estimate as follows:
“The estimated number of [non-permanent residents (NPR)] at the end of the period is subtracted from the number of NPRs at the beginning of the period to calculate the net change,” the spokesperson said in an emailed statement.
Statistics Canada says it assumes temporary workers and students — who collectively make up the majority of Canada’s non-permanent residents — remain in Canada for the duration of their permits.
In fact, many do not leave. Between January 2023 and July 2025, nearly 70 000 people who entered Canada on student or work visas filed asylum claims, a move that can extend their time in Canada by several years.
Siloed agencies
In contrast to Statistics Canada and IRCC, the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) does collect exit and entry data at airports and land borders.
“The interesting [thing is] that CBSA does have this data,” said Falconer.
“We just don’t really include it in our population counts.”
In late 2024, CBSA began providing this data to Statistics Canada. But Statistics Canada does not currently use it to inform its own population count. The agency told Canadian Affairs that it plans to release an update on how it is using this data this winter.
“The acquisition of border crossing data will make it possible to enhance our migration estimates, notably for people leaving Canada,” the Statistics Canada spokesperson said.
Falconer says he looks forward to this change.
“The fact that they’re planning to change this, I think, is a positive move,” he said.
He noted that Statistics Canada has revised previous population counts when more accurate data for births and deaths have become available.
“I would hope Stats Canada does the same thing in this particular case — which is that once we do have … information of exits and entries from CBSA, that we’re actually able to then go back and revise those [population estimates].”
The enforcement gap
Estimates of how many people currently remain in Canada past their visa expiration date vary widely.
IRCC referred Canadian Affairs’ question about the size of this population to Statistics Canada, which did not provide an estimate.
An April 2024 IRCC briefing note for then-immigration minister Marc Miller said, “There are no accurate figures representing the number or composition of undocumented immigrants residing in Canada. Estimates suggest that the population could be as high as 500,000 persons.”
Falconer said the range cited by IRCC in 2022 — of between 20,000 and 500,000 people — conveys the scale of the problem.
“A range that large conveys the idea that the federal government does not have a valid or reliable estimate of the number of people living in Canada without legal status,” he told Canadian Affairs by text message.
Conservative MP and immigration critic Michelle Rempel Garner has called for greater transparency around the exact figures.
“In order to fix the immigration system, the Canadian public should have publicly disclosed information on how many people exit,” she said during a June 5 debate in the House of Commons.
If people come into our country with a visa for whatever time is allowed why don’t we know if imputed in a computer how many and where they are?