Nearly half of Canadians say they now favour joining the European Union, a recent poll by Abacus Data suggests.
The poll, conducted in March, also says the Canadian public sees the EU as being Canada’s most important partner in the next three to five years, followed by the United Kingdom and then the United States.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent diplomacy at the EU-Canada Summit in Brussels aligned with Canadians’ evolving global preferences. Carney signed a comprehensive security and defence partnership with the EU, and committed Canada to deepening its ties with the bloc on trade, climate, AI and critical minerals.
“As the most European of the non-European countries, Canada looks first to the European Union to build a better world,” Carney told reporters in Brussels on June 23.
Sources say Canadian interest in joining the EU may be less a literal aspiration than a signal of Canada’s desire to deepen longstanding allegiances.
“There is a natural affinity that most Canadians have to Europe generally, and to many European countries specifically,” said David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data.
“As much as we are … a Pacific‑facing nation, we’re also still very much Atlantic‑facing in the heritage that many people have.”
‘Foundation of goodwill’
Coletto says the Trump presidency is the main factor behind Canada’s shifting views on Europe. But it is not the only one.
“I think the biggest driver in the moment is the reaction to Trump … but it is also built upon a foundation of goodwill towards Europe generally,” he said.
In the Abacus poll, 46 per cent of respondents said they would support Canada becoming a member state of the EU, and 44 per cent said the Canadian government should definitely or probably look into joining it. Just 29 per cent of respondents said they would oppose Canada doing so.
The EU functions as a political and economic union for its 27 members, setting common rules on trade, environmental standards, consumer protection and other shared policies.
Achim Hurrelmann, a political science professor and co-director of the Centre for European Studies at Carleton University, says the average Canadian is not familiar with the responsibilities of EU membership.
“The EU is a very complicated entity,” he said. “Most Canadians obviously do not understand its institutional complexity or what it would mean to be a member.”
Full integration into the EU would require Canada to make sweeping regulatory changes and adopt EU law, among other changes. “Member states of the EU can no longer conclude their own trade agreements,” he noted.
“So, for instance, Canadian trade with the United States would then be subject to the European Union’s common commercial policy.”
“That, of course, would be much less flexible and would allow us much less of an ability to make trade agreements with the country that for sure will remain our largest trading partner for geographical reasons alone,” he said.
In 2017, Canada and the EU signed the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), an agreement that ensures tariff-free market access for 98 per cent of the goods traded between Canada and the EU.
Since then, Canadian exports to the EU have grown by nearly 60 per cent. However, the U.S. remains Canada’s most important trading partner by far. In 2024, Canada exported nearly $600 billion of goods to the U.S., versus just $34 billion to the EU.
CETA still needs to be ratified by 10 EU member countries, including Italy. But in an interview with Canadian Affairs, Italy’s ambassador to Canada, Alessandro Cattaneo, referred to CETA as a “success story.”
“The toolkit is in place,” Cattaneo said of the trade agreement. “It has led to a significant increase in trade.”
Cattaneo noted that strong diaspora communities in Canada, vibrant academic exchanges and Canada’s youth mobility visa scheme all also help to foster a sense of affinity between Canada and the EU.
“Canada is incredibly popular as a destination for Italian students, scholars, post-docs, etcetera,” he said.
Syncing security
On defence, Canada and the EU already have strong ties — that are soon to become even stronger.
Since 2014, the Canadian Armed Forces have led Operation Reassurance, a Latvia-based mission aimed at deterring Russian aggression in Central and Eastern Europe. As part of this mission, the CAF has mobilized naval assets alongside NATO allies to the Baltic Sea.
Similarly, since 2015, Canada has led Operation Unifier, an operation to train Ukrainian forces. This operation initially took place within Ukraine, but moved to Poland following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Witold Dzielski, Poland’s ambassador to Canada, told Canadian Affairs in an interview that Canada’s cooperation with Poland builds on a long legacy of collaboration dating back to the First World War, when Canadian forces helped train roughly 20,000 Polish troops.
“We have a spectacular history of brotherhood in arms with the Canadians,” he said.
On June 23, Carney announced a security and defence partnership that will enable Canada to participate in a new, €150‑billion joint procurement program with the EU. The partnership will enable Canadian companies to invest in, supply or access defence projects alongside EU states.
Cattaneo, for his part, says Canada’s defence cooperation with Europe is values based. “We both believe in upholding the international system based on rule of law and freedom,” he said.
Most Canadians agree that defence cooperation should be a key part of the Canada-Europe relationship going forward. In a 2024 poll by Nanos Research, 83 per cent of respondents said it is very important that Canada work with Europe on mutual security concerns.
Hurrelmann, of Carleton University, notes that Canada does not need to join the EU to forge a stronger bond with Brussels.
“ Focusing on membership really focuses on a very long-term project,” he said. “It focuses on deeper integration than Canadians might perhaps really want when they look at the details of what it means to be an EU member.
“But there’s lots of potential for getting closer to Europe without pursuing this membership option.”
I think that Canadians don`t use their heads. They hate Trump, voted for the Lying, Corrupt Liberals, Can`t see that Carney is bankrupting Canada and the Canadian people, and wants the WEF at any cost. However, joining the EU would be the Worst Thing Canada Could Do!! These same people are the ones who placed Carney in power are the ones who believe him and want the EU, and We All Would Live To Regret It. Trump is not ruining Canada, it is the Liberals and their ideas that are!
Closer ties with the EU needs willingness on both sides. If my recent travels in Germany are any indication, the Europeans may be happy to have us. I had several people spontaneously express concern for our troubles with the US and suggest that Canada should join The EU. They are paying attention
Apples and pears. Joining the EU does not compromise our sovereignty. All member states are sovereign nations. Being annexed by the States, Canada disappears as a sovereign nation state. It would be administered as a territory of the United States for our lifetime before it would ever get statehood or statehoods if individual provinces were accepted.