Overview:
This article is the sixth in our series looking at regional dynamics and local issues in the 2025 federal election.
B.C. has become a pivotal battleground in Monday’s federal election, as the province appears set for a dramatic change in seat distribution.
The Liberals and Conservatives are neck and neck in the province, each with roughly 40 per cent in the polls. Meanwhile, in B.C., the NDP — which currently accounts for 12 of the NDP’s 24 federal seats — is at risk of an electoral wipeout.
Steve Mossop, executive vice-president of polling research firm Leger’s Western Canada team, says the drastic drop in NDP support has primarily strengthened the Liberals.
“ We probably are facing the most radical change in the makeup of the number of seats held by parties,” he said, who estimated about two-thirds of NDP voters have shifted support to the Liberals.
Strategic voting appears to be a significant factor driving Canadians’ voting decisions. An April 16 Leger poll shows 17 per cent of Liberal supporters say they are voting “to prevent another party from winning.”
“It’s rare in a federal election that you get the strategic voting happening at that level,” said Mossop. “Usually it’s a few percentage points, but [the Liberals] have one in five voters admitting that they don’t really want to vote Liberal, they just want the Conservatives to lose.”
Focus on health care
Issues that have mattered nationally are also top concerns in B.C., such as U.S. tariffs and housing affordability. But voters are prioritizing other issues too.
Health care, in particular, stands out. Twenty-seven per cent of British Columbians identify health care as a top voting issue. This is five points higher than the national average, and higher than in any other province.
“ We’re constantly bombarded with news stories around health-care mistakes … based on capacity and resources,” said Jason Craik, a Vancouver-based senior consultant at public affairs firm Crestview Strategy.
“The wait times are astronomical, approaching 12 hours at some of our more suburban hospitals,” said Craik, who previously served as issues manager in Premier John Horgan’s B.C. NDP government.
Although health care is a provincial responsibility, both the Liberals and Conservatives have promised action to make services more accessible. Both platforms outline national credentialing systems to more efficiently certify foreign-trained health-care workers and decrease interprovincial labour barriers.
It has been years since British Columbians have shown confidence in the Liberals to address these and other policy concerns. The Conservatives led the Liberals in B.C. polls between August 2022 and March 2025.
Craik says the change in the Liberal Party’s leadership has been crucial to reversing the party’s fortunes.
“ I think there’s a sort of pressure release valve that happened here in B.C.,” said Craik. “With Trudeau departing, that opened folks back up to the Liberal Party, and gave them a little bit more runway and believability in continuing on their mandate with the new leader.”
But some parts of the province strongly believe the Conservatives deserve a chance to govern. The party is projected to win by a wide margin in all of the Interior and Northern ridings, areas that rely heavily on natural resource development.
Singh’s uphill battle
One of B.C.’s most closely watched races will be Burnaby Central, where NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is projected to lose his seat.
The riding, formerly part of Burnaby South, underwent boundary changes in the 2022 federal redistricting process. Mossop says the inclusion of the wealthier Sullivan Heights neighbourhood in the redrawn map may explain some of the NDP’s decline.
Singh won his seat by a 10 per cent margin in 2021. Current projections show him trailing 10 points behind Liberal candidate Wade Chang, and four points behind Conservative candidate James Yan.
Mossop suggests a Singh loss would mean “the devastation of his party and likely resignation for him afterwards.”
Craik agrees that this election could spell the end of Singh’s leadership, which began in October of 2017.
“Overall, with a really poor showing by the NDP, I think it’s going to be tough for him to make his case as a strong leader of the party,” said Craik.
Despite the challenges, the NDP maintains pockets of strength, including on Vancouver Island, where they are polling over 30 per cent in multiple ridings.
Mossop notes Islanders have been “much more likely to vote for the Green Party” in provincial elections, and that it “typically has a strong showing with left-leaning voters.”
The fracturing of the progressive vote between the NDP and the Greens means the Conservatives and Liberals are projected to win every riding on Vancouver Island. Green Party Leader Elizabeth May’s long-held Saanich-Gulf Islands seat is statistically tied between the Greens and Tories.
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