Overview:
This article is the fifth in our series looking at regional dynamics and local issues in the 2025 federal election.
Manitoba and Saskatchewan are often grouped together in national conversations. But when it comes to politics, the two Prairie provinces are not a single monolith.
Certainly, that is the case with the forthcoming federal election.
Saskatchewan, which elected only Conservatives in 2021, is poised to remain a Tory stronghold. Current polls project the Conservatives will hold 13 of the province’s 14 seats.
In Manitoba, Premier Wab Kinew’s New Democrats are riding high provincially. But that popularity has not translated into support for the federal NDP.
“The [New Democrat] party is struggling here federally,” said Andrew Enns, executive vice-president of polling research firm Leger’s Central Canada operations. “A big chunk of that NDP vote has already moved to the Liberals.”
In this election, Manitobans are showing a “significant divide in terms of provincial political allegiances and federal [outcomes],” said Enns, who says he sees the same pattern emerging in B.C. and Ontario.
In Winnipeg, several ridings remain in play, but all eyes are on Winnipeg South — a bellwether riding that has voted with the winning party in every federal election since 1988.
A Tory stronghold
Saskatchewan is a solidly conservative province. In October, the conservative Saskatchewan Party won its fifth consecutive majority government. Premier Scott Moe campaigned largely on a platform of tax cuts and natural resource development.
In the months since then, the threat of U.S. tariffs has made trade diversification a priority. Saskatchewan relies on international trade more than any other province, with exports accounting for about 45 per cent of its GDP.
“Saskatchewan is a province where we export things — we grow things and take things out of the ground,” said Dale Richardson, a Regina-based principal at the political consultancy Earnscliffe Strategies. “Like agricultural products, but also potash, uranium and oil and gas.”
Saskatchewan’s export market is diverse, reaching more than 160 countries in 2024. Of all the provinces, it is second-least dependent — after Newfoundland and Labrador — on the U.S. market.
Moe, who formally endorsed Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre in an April 23 X post, has prioritized further diversifying Saskatchewan’s exports away from the U.S. His government has established nine foreign trade offices, including in the U.K., United Arab Emirates, Mexico and Vietnam.
“[Trade is] a huge, huge thing for this province,” said Richardson, who praised Moe’s handling of this file.
The importance of the trade file may have helped Liberal Leader Mark Carney make inroads with Saskatchewan voters. In an April 13 Ipsos poll, Manitoba and Saskatchewan voters expressed greatest confidence in Carney’s ability to deal with Trump.
Even so, Richardson anticipates Saskatchewan voters will still strongly back the federal Conservatives.
“Outside of Regina and Saskatoon, it’s going to be very strong Conservative support,” said Richardson. Even in Regina–Lewvan and Saskatoon West, where the Liberals are polling competitively, Richardson says he’ll be “very surprised if the Conservative candidates don’t win.”
The one riding that appears likely to go Liberal is the northernmost riding of Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, where the Liberals hold a 35-point lead.
Focus on crime
In Manitoba, foreign concerns have taken a backseat to domestic ones.
Enns identifies crime as one of “two focuses” that define Manitoba’s political landscape. The other is affordability, he says.
In an April 22 Leger survey, 11 per cent of Saskatchewan and Manitoban respondents identified crime as one of their top two concerns this election — compared to a national average of seven per cent. In Quebec, the lowest ranking province, just three per cent of respondents cited crime as a top concern.
“In [the Winnipeg] downtown, we’ve had some pretty high-profile violent crime incidents that have caught people’s attention,” said Enns.
Crime statistics bear out these concerns. Saskatchewan and Manitoba have the country’s highest and second-highest crime severity index scores, respectively. This index — which tracks the severity of crime by assigning weights to different offences — reflects both the volume and gravity of reported incidents.
The Liberals and Conservatives have both pitched various measures to address crime. “There’s been a pretty heavy message on law and order,” said Enns, referencing campaign efforts to address an issue Manitobans prioritize.
The Conservatives’ pledges have stood out as especially assertive.
Poilievre has promised to introduce a “three strikes, you’re out” rule that would lead to 10-year prison sentences for anyone convicted of three serious offences. He would require individuals convicted of multiple murders to serve consecutive — rather than concurrent — prison sentences.
Poilievre has also pledged life sentences for fentanyl traffickers caught with more than 40 milligrams of fentanyl, and 15-year mandatory sentences for traffickers caught with between 20 and 40 milligrams. For context, 2 milligrams of fentanyl is considered a potentially lethal dose.
“We will lock them up and we will throw away the key,” Poilievre said about individuals trafficking large quantities of fentanyl.
Critics say these proposals could violate offenders’ Charter rights; Poilievre has at various points expressed a willingness to invoke the Charter’s notwithstanding clause to push through measures that the courts deem unconstitutional.
The Liberals, by contrast, have made gun control a central part of their public safety platform, vowing to implement a buyback strategy first proposed by Justin Trudeau in advance of the 2019 election.
“We will continue to take action to keep assault-style firearms out of our communities, all while respecting the longstanding traditions of hunting, including among Indigenous Peoples, and sport shooting,” says the Liberal platform.
A Prairie bellwether
Manitoba’s Premier Kinew has avoided endorsing any federal party so far — a decision Enns views as strategic.
“He’s going to play it a little closer to the vest in terms of his support in order to keep his options open if Mark Carney wins,” said Enns.
Most of Manitoba’s rural ridings are expected to go Conservative. Within Winnipeg, a number of ridings are in play.
The suburban, upper middle class riding of Winnipeg South is being closely watched by political commentators. The riding has voted for the winning party in every federal election since 1988.
Liberal MP Terry Duguid currently holds the seat. Duguid first won the riding in 2015 and was recently promoted to minister of environment and climate change as part of Carney’s caretaker cabinet.
Duguid’s challenger, former Manitoba Progressive Conservative MLA Janice Morley-Lecomte, is no stranger to the area.
“Her provincial riding [Seine River] overlapped a fair amount of Winnipeg South, so she’ll have a good familiarity of the riding,” said Enns. Morley-Lecomte lost her provincial seat to an NDP challenger in the 2023 provincial election.
Familiarity alone may not be enough to win voters over. The polling aggregator 338 currently shows the Liberals have a 35-point lead in the riding.
“As the polls go, so does Winnipeg South, and it’s probably one that the Liberals will hold onto,” said Enns. “And if it’s the precursor, then that means they’ll probably hold onto government.”
