Overview:
This article is the fourth in our series looking at regional dynamics and local issues in the 2025 federal election.
Ontario voters are returning to the polls just two months after handing Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives a third majority mandate.
In Monday’s federal election, Ontarians are expected to hand Liberals the most seats in the province, even though political experts say voters’ motivations since the provincial election have not changed.
They want security.
“I think federal voters in Ontario are following the same courses many did during the provincial campaign, which is deciding early on ‘this guy’ and largely sticking to it,” said Charles Bird, a Toronto-based principal with the consultancy Earnscliffe Strategies.
Christopher Martin-Chan, a senior consultant at New West Public Affairs and former Conservative staffer in provincial and federal governments, also sees voters prioritizing stability.
“In times of crisis, I think Canadians have trended towards the devil they know instead of shaking things up,” he said.
He pointed to Ford’s recent victory. Despite scandals, Ford won because of his promises to protect Canada against U.S. threats, Martin-Chan says.
“I think you’ve got a similar dynamic playing out and helping [Liberal Leader] Mark Carney,” he said. “Canadians do want change, but they’re also very concerned about what’s going on in the United States, and they don’t necessarily want to shake things up too much.”
Ontario has the most seats of any province in the House of Commons: 122. Right now, polls project the Liberals taking 83 of those seats — up from 74 today. The Conservatives are projected to win 36 seats — down from 38 today.
| Region: Ontario | |||
| Seats: 122 | |||
| Held at Dissolution | |||
| Liberals | Conservatives | NDP | Other |
| 74 | 38 | 5 | 4 |
| Current Polling | |||
| Liberals | Conservatives | NDP | Other |
| 83 | 36 | 2 | 1 |
Ontario voters often determine who forms the national government. In 16 of the last 18 federal elections, the party that won Ontario formed the federal government, says Bird. Bird has advised both federal and provincial government ministers and directed the Liberals’ Ontario campaign during the 2006 federal election.
Ontario’s role in determining the government is particularly notable this year. Both Liberal Leader Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre are running in adjacent Ottawa ridings.
Hard hit
One key reason for the Liberals’ popularity is U.S. President Donald Trump.
Ontario has been particularly hard hit by U.S. tariffs on the aluminium, steel and auto industries. Much of Canada’s auto sector is centred in Ontario, and layoffs have already been announced at some plants.
In February, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce released an analysis of the cities expected to be hardest hit by U.S. tariffs. Eleven of the top 20 cities are in Ontario. Three are in the top five: Windsor, along the U.S. border; in southwestern Ontario, Kitchener, Cambridge and Waterloo, which are counted as one; and Brantford.
But the effects are expected throughout the province. In eastern Ontario, Belleville-Quinte West ranks 11th, while Thunder Bay in northern Ontario ranks 13th.
“People are unsettled by the general situation that has evolved and devolved since Trump’s election,” said Stefan Dolgert, a political science professor at Brock University in St. Catharine’s, Ont.
That uncertainty has, in part, increased support for the Liberals, he says.
Another factor is the province’s overall political preferences. Ontario voters typically lean centre-right, says Martin-Chan. Both the Liberals’ and Conservatives’ platforms have centre-right influences.
“There’s been a consensus, even before the election started, towards a centre-right policy world,” he said.
The Liberals, under Carney, scrapped the consumer carbon tax, the cornerstone of Poilievre’s critiques of Justin Trudeau’s government. The Liberals also agreed to cancel the controversial capital gains tax increases announced in last year’s budget.
These decisions “really removed policy differentiations from being a major factor in this campaign,” he said.
‘Sweet spot’
If the Liberals do succeed, it will be in part because of the Conservatives’ and NDP’s struggles.
Affordability concerns are crucial for Ontario voters. Arguing that Trudeau’s policies created this crisis is the “sweet spot” for the Conservatives, said Bird. But the party struggled to pivot their messages to address Trump’s tariff and annexation threats.
“If the Conservative campaign has failed anywhere, it’s been its inability to find the appropriate footing that melds the affordability and cost of living issue with the situation as presented by Donald Trump,” Bird said.
Some media outlets have reported that the Conservatives’ campaign has been disorganized and fractious. But Martin-Chan says the Conservatives’ campaign is one of the “most disciplined” he has ever seen.
“They knew what their game plan going into this election was, and they’ve executed it just about as well as any campaign could have,” he said.
The Conservatives often do well in Ontario ridings that are not in Toronto, a mainly Liberal stronghold. But the suburban Ontario ridings outside of the Greater Toronto Area tend to flip between Liberals and Conservatives, he said.
The Conservatives could see one of their best showings ever on Monday, in terms of votes cast for them, says Martin-Chan. But it may not be enough to form government, he said.
“The collapse of the NDP means that 40 per cent [of votes] for the Conservatives is not enough anymore, and that used to be enough.”
Either-or election
When Parliament dissolved in March, five of the NDP’s 24 federal seats were in Ontario. Only B.C., with 12 NDP ridings, had more. Now, some polls indicate the party will only capture two Ontario seats. And even those are not sure bets.
Dolgert, who lives in the NDP-held riding of Hamilton Centre, says the party was “undercut by this [political] sea change.”
“The NDP’s existence is predicated upon centre-left voters not … mind[ing] whether it’s a Conservative minority government or even a majority government,” he said.
Now, many centre-left voters are supporting the Liberals.
“I just feel like everyone who is to the centre-left is basically saying, ‘What is the point of voting for the NDP?’ This is an either-or election,” he said.
The NDP also lost a riding when federal boundaries were redrawn after the last election. NDP MP Charlie Angus has held the northern Ontario riding of Timmins-James Bay since 2004. But he announced his retirement, and his riding’s boundaries were redrawn. There are now only nine ridings in northern Ontario, down from 10 previously.
David Tabachnick, a political science professor at Nipissing University in North Bay, says it is possible the NDP will be shut out completely in the province’s north.
The area is crucial for the Canadian economy — particularly because of its critical mineral resources. As of 2022, 15 mining companies were actively exploring the area, the Ontario government says.
Residents know the region’s resources are crucial for technologies like batteries for electric vehicles, says Tabachnick. But they also want to see strong environmental protections and consultations with Indigenous groups, he says.
“We need both provincial and federal partners that understand our region, understand how complicated and difficult it is to develop these projects, but at the same time moving forward with them,” he said. “It’s been excruciatingly slow when it comes to critical minerals.”
But he also knows the difficulties of campaigning in Ontario’s north with its sparse population and remote communities. And the way the federal ridings are drawn, the area is not any party’s main concern.
“[At a] practical, political level, we understand why politicians pay attention to the south more than the north. That’s how they win elections,” he said.
Correction, April 26, 2025 10:28 am: A previous version said Christopher Martin-Chan works at New West Public Strategies. In fact, he works at New West Public Affairs.
