The local dynamics shaping how Atlantic Canada votes this election

In early January, politics took an unusual turn in Atlantic Canada. The Conservative Party was enjoying a 17-point lead in a region that is a Liberal stronghold. High-profile members of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s team were heading for the exits.

Three months later, under the leadership of Prime Minister Mark Carney, the numbers have swung wildly. Some are now predicting his party could repeat a 32-seat sweep of the region — just as the Liberals did in 2015.

“It’s the Gordie Howe hat-trick of Maritime conversations right here … Weather, hockey and politics!” said Trevor Floyd, a partner at the Halifax-based communications firm Iris Communications and former Liberal staffer, both provincially and federally.

Éric Grenier, a polls analyst, has noted the Liberals have seen the “biggest gain” in Atlantic Canada since the beginning of the year. “The Conservatives have shed 14 points in the region, their steepest drop anywhere in the country,” Grenier wrote on The Writ, his Substack platform.

Floyd views the swing in the polls as logical given the region’s history.

“I don’t think Atlantic Canadians have ever really been as comfortable with the CPC as they were with the PC party,” he said, referring to the former Progressive Conservative Party. In 2003, the PC Party merged with the Canadian Alliance to form the modern Conservative Party of Canada.

Floyd says the unexpected surge in Conservative support was soft, and that voters are more comfortable with the Liberals’ more centrist positions.

“Trudeau no longer being there was an opportunity to get some of those people back,” he said. But he cautioned that, beyond the polls, there are signs of Conservative Party momentum on the ground.

“From some Conservatives I know, they can’t keep enough signs. In rural Nova Scotia, they’re running out of signs by the day.”

He also doesn’t believe a Liberal sweep is likely, citing the power of incumbency in a region where “it’s so local. Everybody knows everybody.”

Nova Scotia

Nova Scotia’s highest profile Liberal caucus member is Sean Fraser, who served as ministers of immigration and housing in the Trudeau government.

Fraser, who represents the Central Nova riding, announced his departure from cabinet and federal politics on the same day as finance minister Chrystia Freeland, whose shock resignation spurred the process to remove Trudeau. The local Liberal riding association subsequently nominated Graham Murray to run as the candidate. 

Like Liberal polling numbers in the region, Fraser is back.

Conservative stalwart and former Mulroney cabinet minister Elmer MacKay, 89, lives in Central Nova, which both he and his son Peter MacKay represented for decades.

Canadian Affairs reached MacKay senior shortly after he had returned from the Tories’ campaign headquarters in New Glasgow, N.S. He thinks the Fraser reversal is an issue.

“We’re concerned with credibility here in the local constituency. [The Liberals] acclaimed [Murray] as the candidate, then when it suited them, they kicked him to the curb and brought in the former member of Parliament.”

MacKay predicts the seat will switch to blue.

“I’m going to go against the trend and say that [Fraser is] going to lose his seat. And the seat to the east of us [Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish] … is going to come to the Tories as well. I’m sticking my neck out.”

In the more urban riding of Halifax, Fraser’s former colleague Andy Fillmore recently ran successfully to become mayor, leaving the seat open. The Halifax seat is one of the few that will be targeted by the NDP. It has been won six times since 1997 by the NDP, including four by former party leader Alexa McDonough.  

In the rural riding of South Shore-St. Margarets, the NDP will not be on the ballot after the nominated candidate removed himself from contention, citing family commitments. The riding is central to the key and contentious issue of fisheries management on the province’s coasts, with lobster featuring prominently.

Disagreement between Indigenous and non-Indigenous fishers around access, quotas and seasonal restrictions have also been a source of tensions, and even violence, in local communities in the riding. 

South Shore-St. Margarets is represented by Conservative MP Rick Perkins, who managed to unseat former fisheries minister Bernadette Jordan by less than four per cent in 2021. With no NDP candidate on offer this time around, Perkins is expected to face a challenge holding onto his seat.

Prince Edward Island

P.E.I.’s Lawrence MacAulay resigned his cabinet post as agriculture minister before the writ dropped. For the first election since 1988, the Liberal MP will not be a candidate in the eastern riding of Cardigan.

The Liberals hold all four seats on the Island — although none in cabinet with MacAulay’s departure — and have dominated the province for decades. 

However, the Conservatives’ prospects looked promising enough until recently. The party was able to entice three former provincial cabinet ministers to seek federal nominations. James Alward, Jamie Fox and Natalie Jameson all held portfolios in former premier Dennis King’s Progressive Conservative government.

On the Island, the long-discussed issue of tolls on the Confederation Bridge and the ferry that connects P.E.I. to Nova Scotia has been given new life as internal trade barriers gain national attention.

The Tories hope that an opening CPC campaign commitment to remove all tolls on the bridge will drive voters into their camp. The Liberals have so far only committed to exploring a reduction in the tolls. 

New Brunswick

Export-oriented New Brunswick is Canada’s most trade-exposed province, making it especially vulnerable to the tariff issues that have captured the entire country’s attention. In particular, the industrial port city of Saint John has been identified as the most trade-exposed in the country.

The city has a history of bucking trends. In the 1993 election that all but wiped-out the PC Party under Kim Campbell, only two of her MPs were returned to Ottawa. Saint John MP Elsie Wayne was one of them.

Today, the city is represented by Liberal MP Wayne Long, who has been credited as a leader in the caucus movement to oust Trudeau. Like Wayne, he has a track record of breaking with his party to prioritize the views of his constituents over those of his party.

Long had previously suggested he would not run again, but has had a change of heart. 

Also of note, Fredericton Liberal MP Jenica Atwin — who crossed the floor from the Green Party shortly before the 2021 election — is not reoffering. She is being replaced by David Myles, who brings some local celebrity to the slate as a fixture on the region’s vibrant music scene. Myles is up against Tory candidate Brian MacDonald, a former MLA and provincial leadership contestant.

Newfoundland and Labrador

In St. John’s, N.L., Trudeau’s close friend and former labour minister Seamus O’Regan will not be on the ballot for the first time in 10 years. He is being replaced by Tom Osborne, a successful, 28-year veteran of the provincial assembly. Osborne served in cabinet under multiple premiers — and in multiple parties.

In a province where the fishery is always an important issue, Joanne Thompson, Liberal MP for St. John’s East, took over as federal fisheries minister last month.

The file is a challenging one, and no recent minister has lasted long in the role. There have been seven fisheries ministers during the Trudeau government’s nearly 10 years in power, making it difficult for any one to fully familiarize themself with the portfolio. 

“Broadly speaking, most Atlantic Canadians feel there has been some mismanagement over the last number of years,” said Floyd.

Weeks to go

With fewer than three weeks to go — and important debates yet to happen — much can still happen in the short campaign.

Polling suggests the Liberals have the momentum. But local characteristics can be tougher to measure, and need to be considered in a small region like the Atlantic. 

This may be encouraging news for nervous Tories.

“You have to be a bad representative to get punted,” said Floyd, the communications specialist. “If you’ve been supporting your community’s interest in Ottawa and they believe in you, they will re-elect you.”

From his home in Pictou County, N.S., Elmer MacKay has seen his share of elections. “Fights, elections and ball games are hard to predict,” he said.

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