U.S. President Donald Trump has said his looming tariffs on Canadian goods are necessary to force action on the migrants and drugs entering the United States through its northern border.
He has also described billions of dollars in daily cross-border trade as a U.S. subsidy and claimed Canada would not be “viable as a country” without it.
According to Trump, Canada’s economic dependence on the United States is one of the reasons it should become the 51st U.S. state.
AFP fact-checked some of the president’s claims about Canada, which include misrepresentations about bilateral economic relations and the situation at the border.
Canadian imports
Trump has claimed that Canada gets 95 per cent of its “product” from the United States.
For Canada’s imported goods, that figure is inaccurate, according to Statistics Canada.
In 2024, 62.2 per cent of Canada’s total imports came from the United States, the federal agency said.
But, as University of Toronto economist Joseph Steinberg noted, “a lot of what Canadian consumers buy is produced domestically,” so Trump’s 95 per cent claim can only be credibly scrutinized if it is assumed he was talking about imports.
“If we … focus on imports, does the U.S. account for 95 per cent? Not quite, although it is a really high number,” Steinberg said.
Statistics Canada also reported 75.9 per cent of the country’s exports went to the United States last year.
Trade deficit
During the question-and-answer portion of his January World Economic Forum appearance, Trump claimed the United States had a $200 billion or $250 billion trade deficit with Canada.
“That’s an inflated number,” Steinberg said.
The United States Trade Representative and the U.S. Census Bureau put the trade deficit with Canada at US$63.3 billion at the end of 2024, while Statistics Canada reported its surplus with the United States as C$102.3 billion (US$70.3 billion).
But trade deficits are not subsidies and the data does not affirm that the United States is propping up Canada’s economy, Steinberg said.
“International trade is a mutually beneficial transaction,” he said. “The United States pays Canada for products, it wouldn’t pay Canada for those products if it didn’t feel that it was worth it in this case.”
U.S. oil purchases from Canada are a main driver of the trade deficit, he added.
American banks
“American banks are not allowed to do business in Canada,” Trump said in a social media post last month.
That claim is also false.
Foreign banks, including American financial institutions, are regulated by Canada’s federal Bank Act.
“There are 16 U.S.-based bank subsidiaries and branches with around C$113 billion in assets currently operating in Canada,” the Canadian Bankers Association said in a Feb. 3 statement on X.
These include JP Morgan Chase, CitiBank, and Bank of America, which have offices in most major Canadian cities.
Border security
The Trump administration has said improving border security is a central issue in its relations with Canada.
Trump has claimed that undocumented migrants and the drug fentanyl are flowing across the border in large numbers.
Kelly Sundberg, a criminologist at Mount Royal University in Calgary, said there is no evidence to back up Trump’s claims on fentanyl, as data shows less than one per cent of the killer opioid that enters the United States came from Canada.
According to the United States Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) agency, out of over 21,800 pounds (9,900 kilograms) of fentanyl intercepted by agents during the 2024 fiscal year, 43 pounds was seized near the northern border with Canada.
CBP data also reported U.S. border patrol agents apprehended 23,721 people illegally crossing the Canadian border in fiscal year 2024.
Nationally last year, CBP agents came into contact with more than 1.5 million undocumented migrants.
“Canada is under greater threat from the United States than the United States is from Canada for most things — guns, drugs [and] illegal immigrants,” Sundberg said.
He said more relaxed drug laws in Canada could project an inflated sense of illicit substances entering the United States.
