Long-time NDP MP Daniel Blaikie triggered Monday’s by-election in Elmwood–Transcona when he resigned in February to join Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew’s government.
The federal riding, located in northeastern Winnipeg, has been an NDP stronghold for most of its history. Blaikie held the riding from 2015 until his resignation in 2024, and his father, Bill Blaikie, held it from 1979 to 2008. The one exception to the NDP’s long winning streak was 2011, when it swung Conservative.
Yet, the riding is expected to be a competitive race between the NDP and Conservatives this election.
“I actually do think this is gonna be a fairly close, much closer by-election than the previous two federal election results in Elmwood–Transcona,” said Andrew Enns, executive vice-president of Léger, a Winnipeg-based market research company.
The NDP is projected to win 44 per cent of the vote, versus 38 per cent for the Conservatives, according to a Sept. 8 projection by polling aggregator 338Canada. The site states an eight-point margin of error.
Enns characterizes Winnipeg as a city where all of the major federal parties tend to get a “slice of the pie.”
But the Conservative Party typically wins suburban Winnipeg ridings — not urban ridings like Elmwood–Transcona.
“Elmwood–Transcona is not what I would consider, in ordinary circumstances, a seat that I would put much stock in the Conservatives winning,” he said.
According to the most recent census data, the median household income in the riding is $81,000 and the median worker income is $40,800.
The Conservatives are running a candidate, Colin Reynolds, who may be able to connect with the riding’s working class voters. A former electrician, Reynolds has no prior political experience.
“Jagmeet Singh and Justin Trudeau’s costly coalition does not represent union workers like me,” Reynolds said in a July 19 campaign video.
The NDP’s candidate, Leila Dance, has spent her entire career in the non-profit sector and is also a newcomer to federal politics. She served as executive director of the Winnipeg business association Transcona BIZ for the past four years, and previously held roles at the Children’s Wish Foundation, ALS Society of Manitoba, Kidney Foundation and Park City West Community Centre.
Neither candidate responded to multiple requests for comment before press time.
‘Hearing at the doors’
Both candidates have prioritized affordability in their campaign messaging. A June 2024 national poll by Abacus Data identified cost of living and housing affordability as key issues, with 73 per cent and 47 per cent of respondents identifying these as concerns, respectively.
The Conservative Party has made the removal of the federal carbon tax and building more homes two key pledges of its campaign — both measures it says will help improve affordability.
By contrast, much of the NDP’s affordability messaging has focused on federal social programs — such as pharmacare and dental care — that the NDP pushed the minority Liberals to implement as part of their supply-and-confidence agreement.
“I think you see Ms. Dance … equating those [programs] to providing support and allowing families to leave a little bit more money in their budgets that they don’t have to devote to prescription medicines, for example, or dental care,” said Enns.
But the NDP is now minimizing its past political coalition with the Liberals, he says.
“I’ve heard from a few [people] that they were hearing a bit at [voters’] doors the feeling that the NDP had gotten too close to the Liberals,” he said.
“I think with the last weeks of the campaign, being able to say, ‘We’re done with the Liberals, we tore up the agreement, they’re weak. We’re the only ones who can stop the Conservatives,’ probably helps give a little clearer message to people on the door when they hear that concern.”
In the 2021 election, Blaikie comfortably won the riding with 50 per cent of the votes. Then-Conservative candidate Rejeanne Caron came a distant second with 28 per cent, followed by Liberal Party candidate Sara Mirwaldt at 15 per cent.
“I think [voter turnout] is going to be pretty low, and that puts a lot of pressure on the ground games of the two competitive parties: the Conservatives and the NDP,” said Enns.
“Whoever’s got the best ground game — and I would say the NDP probably does — should be the one that should be able to carry the day.”
In June, the Conservatives unexpectedly won a by-election in the former Liberal stronghold of Toronto–St. Paul’s. Sources credited the Conservatives with organizing an effective ground game in that riding, Canadian Affairs reported at the time.
Monday’s by-election in Elmwood–Transcona, as well as the by-election in the Montreal riding of LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, are being closely watched given what they could signal about the parties’ fortunes in the general election, which must be held by fall 2025.
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