Over the past year ending in May, Alberta created more than 66,000 private sector jobs, out of a total of 200,000 private sector jobs created across the country. This means the province, which accounts for a tenth of Canada’s population, accounted for a third of its private sector job growth.
“Alberta is seeing much more private sector growth than public sector, whereas [in] the rest of the country we see the opposite phenomenon, where we’re seeing about double the amount of growth in the public sector as we are in the private sector,” said Alicia Planincic, an economist with the think tank Business Council of Alberta.
Economists and business leaders say United Conservative Party policies, including lower corporate taxes and reduced regulatory burden, have helped spur new growth. But they also say Alberta is experiencing a new kind of population boom as Canadians — and new immigrants — move to the province in search of affordable housing.
“As housing has grown more expensive across Canada, the province’s comparative affordability has been a major selling point, with various iterations of the ‘Alberta is Calling’ campaign helping to bring attention to what Alberta has to offer,” said Planincic.
In 2023, Alberta’s population grew 4.4 per cent, driven mostly by international and interprovincial migration, according to government figures.
That year, Albertans enjoyed the highest GDP per capita of any province, at $70,700. And the province is projected to have the second highest GDP growth rate of any province in 2024, at 2.1 per cent, second only to Newfoundland and Labrador.
‘Strongest turnaround’
When Planincic moved to Alberta from Manitoba in 2019, the province was not doing as well. The province’s unemployment rate was 6.8 per cent that year, versus a national average of 5.7 per cent. Her job search wasn’t easy.
“The conversation then was about people leaving Alberta because there weren’t any job opportunities,” she said. “But since the pandemic, Alberta has had the strongest turnaround of any province.”
Private sector employment gains in Alberta have been largely driven by the mining, manufacturing and services sectors. The mining, quarrying and oil gas sector alone was responsible for 18,000 of the province’s 66,000 new private sector jobs.
Businesses in Alberta are hiring, but there is a shortage of workers with in-demand skills, says Dana Severson, a researcher at the Alberta Chambers of Commerce, a federation of chambers of commerce and trade boards from communities across Alberta.
“The number of employers stating that it has become more difficult to hire the staff needed has increased from a year ago, which will likely continue to 2025,” Severson said.
This hiring challenge is an especially big problem for Alberta’s tech sector, says Jess Sinclair, director of government affairs for the prairie region of the Canadian Council of Innovators, a business advocacy group.
“While we are pleased that Alberta is standing up policies to attract new private sector workers to the province, local tech companies are still having trouble accessing the skilled talent they need to scale up,” Sinclair said.
A skills mismatch may help to explain why Alberta has Canada’s third highest unemployment rate, at 7.2 per cent. The City of Calgary’s unemployment rate sits at 8.5 per cent, up from 5.8 per cent in January — the highest of any major Canadian city.
“What’s unclear at this point is whether this represents people who just moved [to Calgary] and are looking for work, which is a good thing, or whether it represents a true slowdown in the labour market,” said Planincic.
“That’s something to watch out for in the next few months.”
Ease of doing business
Chris Brown, a senior director at the non-profit Calgary Economic Development, says a number of factors have made Calgary — which boasts the most corporate headquarters per capita of any Canadian city — a successful destination for businesses, investment and jobs.
“What we constantly hear is the low-cost business environment and quality of life,” said Brown.
“Calgary is the sunniest major city in Canada, we’re 45 minutes away from the Rocky Mountains. We have a very open and entrepreneurial culture which means you’re always one phone call away from a business leader,” he said.
Calgary is also the most well-connected mid-sized city in North America, according to the airline WestJet, which just expanded its selection of direct flights. Calgary’s International Airport offers 95 direct flights to 19 countries, according to the website FlightConnections.
“What that means is there’s an ease of doing business. You can leave Calgary, hit your market and talk to some investors, and then be back for dinner,” Brown said.
According to Startup Genome, an organization that evaluates the viability of startup ecosystems, Calgary ascended to the ranks of top 50 start-up ecosystems in 2024, up from the 51-60 range in 2023. The city currently has 2,800 operational start-ups, according to Calgary Economic Development.
“One of the best measures for [the viability of] a start-up ecosystem, is the amount of venture capital dollars coming in,” Planincic said. “Over the last year, Alberta has doubled its share of venture capital dollars coming into the province.”
Severson, of the Alberta Chambers of Commerce, agrees that a host of factors make Alberta an attractive destination. She points to the province’s competitive tax environment, “open for business” mentality and relatively low cost-of-living as some of the reasons the province is attractive to businesses and residents alike.
‘See an edge’
Despite having significantly higher GDP per capita than B.C. and Ontario — Canada’s most expensive housing markets — housing in Alberta is relatively cheap.
The average price of a home in Alberta was $500,000 as of April 2024, according to Wowa, a Canadian finance encyclopaedia. By contrast, the average home price in Ontario was $900,000 and $1,300,000 in B.C.
“This population growth we’re seeing [in Alberta] is different than in the past,” said Planincic. “It’s families, single people, everyone basically who is getting pushed out of these higher priced housing markets. They’re coming to Calgary, Edmonton, but also more rural areas as well.”
But prices in Alberta, especially for rentals, are starting to catch up.
Alberta saw a year-over-year increase in house prices of 7.0 per cent, while prices rose 1.4 per cent in B.C. and declined 0.9 per cent in Ontario.
Rental prices in the province are climbing even faster. The average monthly rental cost of a two-bedroom apartment was $1,907 in May, versus $2,710 in Ontario and $2,250 in B.C. Rental prices were up 16 per cent in Alberta in the year, versus just one per cent in Ontario and six per cent in B.C.
If these trends continue, Alberta may someday be a victim of its own success. But for now, the province remains an attractive destination that many provinces could only wish to emulate.
“I think one of the really good things that Alberta has going for it is we’re going to continue to see that edge of attracting people to the province,” said Brown, of Calgary Economic Development.
“I think that’s going to really continue, maybe not quite as strong as it has been, but I think we’re going to continue to see an edge just because we have so much to offer on the affordability angle … [And] in our most recent business outlook survey, businesses were still pretty optimistic.”
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