Foreign affairs usually don’t play a role when it comes to voting in Canadian federal elections. But the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is having an effect on religious voters in this country.
That’s the finding of a new poll by the Angus Reid Institute that shows low support for the federal Liberal party among all religious groups, including two groups they have traditionally counted on — Muslims and Jews.
For Shachi Kurl, president of Angus Reid Institute, the poll shows the Liberals’ efforts to balance their response to the Israel-Gaza conflict isn’t working, especially with the Muslim and Jewish constituencies — both of whom have been important sources of support in the past.
According to Kurl, Muslims are leaving due to what they feel is a lack of Liberal Party support for the Palestinians, while Jews are departing because they believe there is insufficient support for Israel.
“Support is bleeding away from both sides,” she said.
‘Grievous disappointment’
The poll, which was released in mid-May, shows 41 per cent of Muslims support the NDP, 31 per cent support the Liberals and 15 per cent support the Conservatives. By contrast, in a 2016 Environics Institute poll, 65 per cent of Muslims reported voting for the Liberals in the 2015 election, 10 per cent voted for the NDP and just two per cent supported the Conservatives.
Sadaf Ahmed is a Winnipegger doing her PhD at the University of Toronto on contemporary Islam in Canada. While Muslims in Canada have historically supported the Liberal Party, she said there is “grievous disappointment” in the Muslim community today over its “both sides-ism” with regard to the war in Gaza.
For many Muslims, support for the NDP is based on how it has been “much more open and courageous in its condemnation of the war,” she said. At the same time, some in the community believe that the party “took longer than it should have in condemning the war.”
The poll shows Jewish support for Liberals is also low, with 42 per cent supporting the Conservatives compared to 33 per cent for the Liberals. Liberals have traditionally performed well in federal ridings with significant Jewish populations, the Angus Reid article notes.
Shimon Koffler Fogel, president and CEO of the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs, says the poll shows the Jewish community is not unified around a single party. But as the conflict in Gaza has gone on, there has been increased criticism of the Liberal government by some in the community and a rallying around the Conservatives.
“That said, there remains a core element within the Jewish community that will continue to identify with the Liberal Party,” he said, adding “the acute concern about Israel’s welfare and the intensity of the hate towards Jews being expressed will remain priority considerations for much of the community as we enter into an election campaign season.”
‘At best a second choice’
Other religious voters are also leaving the Liberals, with the Conservatives the preferred choice for 53 per cent of all Christians. Broken down by denominations, 45 per cent of Roman Catholics prefer the Conservatives, 24 per cent the Liberals and 16 per cent are for the NDP.
Among mainline Protestants, 58 per cent are for the Conservatives, 25 per cent for the Liberals and 11 per cent are NDP. Seventy-nine per cent of evangelicals would vote Conservative, five per cent for the Liberals and 14 per cent NDP.
Jonathan Molloy, who teaches in the department of political science at Carleton University, says the strong Roman Catholic and evangelical preference for the Conservatives isn’t surprising. But he thinks other issues, such abortion and sexuality, are more important in determining their support for that party.
At the same time, the Conservative Party has done a good job of reaching out to Catholics and evangelicals. “Even though it has failed to deliver on their demands, it has made them feel included, at home in that party,” he said.
The poll indicates 53 per cent of Hindus would vote Conservative, 22 per cent support the Liberals and 18 per cent the NDP. For Sikhs, 54 per cent are Conservative, 21 per cent Liberal and 20 per cent NDP.
The intentions of religious voters mirror the strong Conservative Party lead among the population in Canada at large, said Kurl, adding a poll about religion and voting had not been taken for a long time.
“The governing Liberals are at best the second choice among all religious groups analyzed,” she said.
Ray Pennings, executive vice president of the think tank Cardus, says he is a bit surprised that the war in Gaza is important to religious voters since “foreign affairs are usually not a vote driver.” But the war is a motivating issue for many voters, especially younger people, he noted.
One notable thing about the poll is the number of evangelicals who express support for the NDP. “They see it as principled,” he said, adding that the finding is “consistent with other polling I have seen.”
