If a general election were held today, the polls indicate something unusual would happen. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative party would win and it’d be thanks, in no small part, to Gen Z and Millennials.
Young voters typically lean left. In Britain, support for Rishi Sunak’s Tory party among under-thirties is at just nine per cent. Only about one third of young adults voted for the right in the most recent elections in France, Germany and Spain. And about the same number in the US intend to vote for Donald Trump in November.
Canada’s young people have voted similarly. In 2021, Abacus polls released just before the country’s general election showed that about 27 per cent of under-thirties and 30 per cent of people ages 30-44 supported Erin O’Toole’s Tories. But since then, young Canadians have shifted steadily rightward. The Tories now poll at 34 per cent and 41 per cent of those two groups, respectively. Meanwhile, support for the Liberals has fallen sharply, by about 10 points in both cohorts.
What gives?
For a lot of young people it’s the economy, stupid (that’s right Boomers, you’re not the only ones who can make that joke). You’ve heard the story before. Canada’s economy underperforms its peers on a per capita basis. Debt is up. Hiring is down — new job openings are 25 per cent below year-ago levels, according to RBC Economics. And reports that young Canadians might never be able to afford a home abound.
Poilievre has made inroads with young voters — like me — because he’s made housing the sine qua non of his campaign. Part of his plan is to tie federal funding to housing starts, such that cities would have to increase the number of homes they build by 15 per cent annually. Of course plans are just that and the details of Poilievre’s housing plan beyond that 15 per cent benchmark are vague. Still, it seems he’s been able to move the needle with young people on this issue.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau knows his party needs to address the housing crisis to win back young voters. So as of late, the Liberals have been using pre-budget announcements to tout new programs aimed at helping Canadians transition from renting to owning.
But as Globe and Mail columnist Tony Keller’s aptly titled op-ed put it, “The Trudeau government’s housing promises can’t fix a crisis of its own making.” Not before the next election, at least, which will take place before Canadians feel the effects of, say, the $15 billion the government has promised to spend on loan guarantees for rental housing developers. So, it might be too little too late for the Liberals to win back young voters on this issue.
Then there’s the war between Israel and Hamas, which has polarized the left. According to recent polling from the Angus Reid Institute, only 20 per cent of Canadians believe the prime minister has struck the right balance between support for Israel and the Palestinian people. Roughly the same (18 per cent) believe he is siding too much with Palestinians and slightly more (26 per cent) believe he is siding too much with Israel.
The Liberal party’s attempts to appeal to both sides on this issue have ended up “annoying” both of them, according to the BBC. Mr. Trudeau emphasizes the country’s unwavering support for Israel all the while urging the Knesset to do more to reduce civilian casualties. But given how divisive this issue is, and the government’s response to it, it’s no surprise the Liberals are hemorrhaging voters to both the Conservatives and NDP.
You can see this issue dividing Liberals in real time. For instance, the government’s recent endorsement of a motion to recognize Palestinian statehood has left some Liberal MPs, like Andrew Housefather, feeling increasingly out of step with their party. “When my party members cheered and gave a standing ovation to Heather McPherson and the NDP, I started reflecting on whether or not I belonged,” Housefather told CBC News.
Like Housefather, I look at the Liberal party today — the only party I’ve ever voted for in an election — and wonder if I belong. And that’s a big problem for Trudeau’s administration.
The election is still far away and so long as Trudeau is down in the polls he’ll delay calling one for as long as possible. But unless Trudeau can win back support for his party from young Canadians, it increasingly looks like it will be young Canadians like me who tip the next election in Poilievre’s favour.
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