Canada’s search for tariff relief still leads to the White House, say foreign policy experts, even after Donald Trump’s Republicans lost control of both chambers of Congress this week.
Democrats won back control of the House of Representatives and Senate on Tuesday, giving them greater power to challenge the president when the new Congress convenes in January.
But the president retains broad powers to impose tariffs, and any bill to curb that power would require bipartisan support.
Xavier Delgado, a former senior program associate at the Wilson Center’s Canada Institute, cautions against Canadians expecting immediate benefits.
“Why [the midterms] might be relevant to Canadians is that the results … appear to be a massive referendum on the president and the administration’s handling of the economy,” he said.
“This is not just limited to, but certainly includes, the trade war on Canada.”
The limits of a majority
Trump’s second term has been a turbulent one for Canada.
His administration has imposed tariffs of up to 50 per cent on Canadian steel and aluminum, 25-per-cent tariffs on certain vehicles and auto parts, and additional duties on lumber.
In August, Washington added 50-per-cent levies on a broader range of Canadian goods. And Trump has threatened 50-per-cent tariffs on all Canadian vehicles, auto parts and steel starting Jan. 1, 2027.
While the Carney government has prioritized diversifying non-U.S. trade, Canada still sends nearly three-quarters of its merchandise exports to the United States.
Canada is also a critical trade partner for the United States, with 27 states having Canada as their top export market.
The five states that trade the most with Canada — Texas, Michigan, New York, Ohio and Illinois — all went “blue” this election. All five elected Democratic governors, and the four with senators on the ballot voted Democratic too.
A Democratic-led House of Representatives and Senate may now try to push back on Trump’s trade agenda.
In a Wednesday letter, Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic leader of the House of Representatives, listed eliminating Trump’s tariffs among his priorities for the first 100 days.
“Congress will assume its place as a check and balance on an out-of-control executive branch,” said Jeffries.
However, fulfilling this promise could be a challenge.
Many current tariffs rest on powers Congress previously delegated to the executive. Trump also has the power to veto legislation that proposes ending tariffs or narrowing the president’s powers to impose them.
Overriding a presidential veto requires two-thirds of members voting in each chamber, meaning Democrats would need to secure Republican support at both levels.
Delgado, who is today a junior fellow at the Conference of Defence Associations Institute, sees the election’s potential impact in the calculations those Republicans make. Lawmakers facing voters in 2028 or 2030 may become more willing to challenge policies associated with higher costs.
Another avenue for Congress to potentially influence the executive is through presidential appointments.
The Senate can block the president’s nominees for cabinet secretaries, agency heads, ambassadors and federal judges, including Supreme Court justices.
Democrats could press for more moderate appointees to key portfolios, says Delgado, potentially influencing the administration’s approach to trade, China and continental defence.
Alex Giordano, program manager of the New North America Initiative, a University of Calgary-based research program focused on bilateral relations, says he thinks Tuesday’s losses could make Trump more likely to soften his own stance on trade.
“I think we’ll see a higher likelihood that Trump will be willing to concede lower tariffs and sign a deal with Canada,” he said.
Days before the midterms, Prime Minister Mark Carney reported having a constructive conversation with Trump.
But Delgado says Trump is unlikely to be a typical lame duck president.
“For a lame duck president who … has a history of embracing his tariff policies and standing by them even when they face significant public scrutiny, I think that’s very difficult to predict.”
American workers come first
Even if Congress were to limit Trump’s tariff actions, other trade uncertainties remain.
In July, Washington declined to renew the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement for another 16-year term. The trade pact remains in force, but the agreement is now subject to annual reviews, creating long-term uncertainty for businesses.
Giordano says even Democrats may no longer favour the deep continental integration that CUSMA delivered.
“You have a growing movement of folks who may actually agree with Trump on tariffs on the Democratic side, but for different reasons,” he said.
“It’s less of a ‘Canada’s ripping us off’ [outlook],” he said. “’It’s more so, ‘We need stronger jobs here in the U.S.’”
Within the party, this movement is being spearheaded by the Democratic Socialists of America, Giordano says, noting they have “a very large cohort coming in.”
“I think [with] the rise of the DSA there could be a little bit of a horseshoe effect with some of the views that the MAGA right holds, and I think that’s impactful for Canadians,” he said.
“It’s not ‘Breathe easy.’ These shifts are generational, and we’ll see them to come.”
Both Giordano and Delgado say Canada will need to make its case directly to legislators, explaining how Canadian trade supports their constituents’ livelihoods.
“I think that’s a fundamental change in how countries have to deal with an evolving Washington, and that’s on both sides, both parties,” Giordano said.
“The American worker is now at the centre of both parties and the missions that they advance.”
Delgado notes there will be a lot of “freshman legislators” in Congress. Unlike some of the people they are replacing, many of these legislators do not have deep experience on the policy files involving Canada, he says.
Rebuilding the relationship
The Canada-U.S. trade war has strained relationships in ways that are unlikely to be repaired overnight.
A July poll by Angus Reid found nearly half of Canadians held an unfavourable view of Americans.
Among respondents who voted Liberal in the 2025 election, that figure was 64 per cent; for Conservatives, it was 25 per cent.
Many Americans now also view Canadians unfavourably.
An August poll by Economist/YouGov found 38 per cent of Republicans regarded Canada as unfriendly or an enemy, as did eight per cent of Democrats.
Is Canada an enemy or ally?
Giordano sees Democrats’ gains in the midterms as an opportunity for more American politicians to speak positively about Canada and reinforce the countries’ business, cultural and personal ties.
“You have American politicians on the Democratic side who will now likely speak up more about the impact of the relationship with Canada, and that it’s positive,” he said, acknowledging “some of it’s self-serving to have a contrast with the MAGA right.”
Canadian officials should cultivate those allies while continuing to engage Republicans, Giordano says. And Canada must engage with both the legislative and executive branches, he notes.
“You can’t just hold out another two years,” he said, noting the president remains influential in setting party policy. “You have to engage with the president.
“And I know that’s not the news a lot of Canadians want to hear. But the U.S. president has a lot of power, and it’s not to be ignored.”
