A third of Canadians feel like orphans, new polling data from the Angus Reid Institute shows. Political orphans, that is.
According to a survey released Sept. 12, more than a third of Canadians — including 25 per cent of self-described conservatives and 30 per cent of liberals — feel politically homeless and regard all of the federal parties as too extreme.
Respondents also reported a perceived shift in the parties’ stances: 48 per cent said they thought the Conservatives had shifted further right; 43 per cent said they thought the Liberals had shifted left.
As bleak as the data may be, it presents a major opportunity for the party smart enough to seize it.
Last month, Canadian Affairs interviewed Dominic Cardy, leader of the Canada Future Party. Cardy told us their decision to launch a new federal party was informed by polling showing trends similar to those seen in the Angus Reid survey.
“We actually did some polling prior to the launch of the new party … There’s a growing concern amongst Canadians — including the supporters of the existing parties — that those parties are sliding too far to the extremes,” he said.
The party’s aim, Cardy continued, is to appeal to Canadians looking for solutions that are “not left, not right, but forward.”
We admire and applaud Cardy and his fellow candidates for their courage in starting something new. But the reality is that the Canada Future Party, a basically unknown entity, is unlikely to win much support in the upcoming election.
Rather, existing parties must be the ones to take these data to heart.
The Conservatives, we would argue, have not shifted right so much in substance as in tone.
Skeptical? Consider the four key planks of their platform, which the party has been touting with impressive discipline for well over a year: Axe the tax, Build the homes, Fix the budget and Stop the crime.
The first two of these can hardly be considered extreme positions in the current political climate. Almost all provincial and federal leaders have abandoned support for the carbon tax, including three NDP leaders: Manitoba’s Wab Kinew, B.C.’s David Eby and federal leader Jagmeet Singh.
And all federal parties are committed to building more homes, with marginal differences in their plans to do so. The other two planks, budget discipline and crime reduction, are standard conservative fare.
On a range of other policy matters, the Conservatives have offered hardly any details about their plans. Some have argued this is the right strategy.
In a keynote address at the Canada Strong and Free Network Conference in March 2023, former prime minister Stephen Harper urged the party to avoid articulating its policy positions too soon. Far better for the Conservatives — and media — to focus on holding the governing party’s feet to the fire, he said.
Fair enough.
But now, with an election drawing near, the party owes it to Canadians to start making its positions clear. Canadian Affairs has argued this point before, specifically regarding the Conservatives’ pledge to defund the CBC. But the same goes for a host of other areas: industrial policy, defence spending, health care and productivity.
All of this is not meant to suggest Canadians are wrong in their perceptions of the Conservatives becoming more extreme. But we suspect these impressions stem more from the party’s style of operating, than the substance of their platform.
Long-time political observers and operators have talked about how the party under Pierre Poilievre brandishes an adversarial style of politics that would have been anathema to “big tent” conservative leaders like Brian Mulroney or Jean Charest.
One aspect of this approach is the use of derogatory nicknames. Just this week, an official Conservative Party press release referred repeatedly to the NDP leader as “Sellout Jagmeet Singh” and new Liberal Party advisor Mark Carney as “Carbon Tax Carney.”
Undoubtedly, this style appeals to a certain type of voter, or the party would not be using it. But it likely contributes to the popular impression that the party is more extreme. And it is almost certainly a turn-off for the Canadians seeking professionalism and moderation in our politics.
The Liberals, on the other hand, are in a different situation. We (and many others) would argue they have substantively shifted left under Justin Trudeau’s leadership.
There are many reasons for this: the personal politics of Trudeau and his close advisors; the party’s strategic decision to capture votes that traditionally went to the NDP; and the period in which the party has governed.
In the Trudeau government’s early years, many leading economists argued that sustained, low interest rates justified massive deficits to expand or launch generous social programs.
But now, times have changed.
We are no longer in a low-interest environment. Statistics Canada projects Canada will spend $54.1 billion on public debt charges in 2024-25 — nearly two per cent of GDP. Canada is also facing a massive productivity problem and heightened geopolitical risks. The Liberals’ focus on left-wing social and cultural issues has distracted them from the very real economic and security issues facing the country.
There is a large, centrist voting bloc looking for a change in tone and substance. It is in the electoral interests of our political parties to respond to this desire for change. More importantly, it is in the national interest of Canadians for our political leaders to do so.
Poilivere and Conservatives like Daniel Smith are why there are more and more political orphans. I am fed up with the Liberal leadership and their obsession with apologizing for things that happened generations ago and the generous donations to foreign countries. Lack of foresight on things like asylum seekers and immigration shows that they lack practical analysis of their policies.
The Conservatives on the other hand a scary with their policies that seem to align with the USA Republicans and the religious right agendas. Scary when they talk about changing Health Care delivery, are they planning to turn hospitals over to American private medical companies? The Conservative mantra is private sector can do it better and ignore the private partnerships that are colossal failures like Alberta’s medical lab fiasco after canceling the previous administration’s government lab project.
NDP has gotten my vote in the past when the local candidate was a good choice. They will not with the current leader, I am biased against all religion, have been for years. If I can tell your religious beliefs from 250 metres away I am not voting for you as I don’t know what you put first. I suspect that your religion and version of a Purple Sky Fairy comes first.
Hoping for a good independent candidate for the next election.