Canada’s summer will be hotter than usual, experts agree. But will the heat bring on more forest fires? That’s where they diverge.
David Phillips, senior climatologist at Environment Canada and spokesperson for the Meteorological Service of Canada, said their models predict a hotter and drier summer for most of the country.
And that could have dire consequences for a country whose forests are already burning.
Only two months into the fire season, Canada has set a record for forest fires. The acreage burned from all the fires is almost eight million hectares, an area larger than Nova Scotia.
“We have already seen unprecedented [forest] fires,” said Phillips, adding he’s aware the rest of the season could be like the spring. “I mean, I think it’s a safe prediction.”
Jack Burnett, managing editor of The Old Farmer’s Almanac, which has been forecasting weather since 1792, begs to differ.
Burnett agrees with Phillips, whose praises he sings loudly, that the country will see a hot dry summer. But he predicts El Niño will cause rainstorms that will help deter forest fires.
El Niño is a climate pattern that warms up surface water of the Pacific, causing warm air to hold more moisture. In Canada, that warm air will clash with cooler winds and cause more stormy weather.
“Are we going to have a really disastrous forest fire season this summer like last year? We don’t think so,” Burnett said. “The whole effect, I think, will be less intense than last year.”
Forest fires generally sparked by lightning or humans
Overall, Burnett agrees Atlantic Canada, southern Quebec, Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan will be warmer and drier than usual. Further west and the Yukon will see hotter weather as well, but more rain.
If the rain comes, it will be welcome. There were 365 forest fires blazing, about a quarter of those burning out of control, as of June 28, the most recent data available, according to the National Wildland Fire Situation Report. With resources stretched nationwide, firefighters from Australia, United States, France, South Korea, South Africa and other countries have come to help national efforts.
The summer months are peak season for forest fires. The fires are generally sparked by lightning — most lightning strikes occur in the summer — or people. Burning yard waste, unattended campfires, dropped lit cigarettes and sparks from an ATV can all start large fires.
Several provinces — including British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia — will not impose a campfire ban now. Instead, experts there said, the decision to ban fires this summer will be based on weather conditions.
“Some places had never been as dry in 100 years,” said Phillips. “It was just a spark away from happening.”
The dryness could hint at an even worse forest fire season for the eastern part of Canada, including Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes, which will have particularly dry and hot weather overall, said Phillips.
By hotter, that could mean a half to one degree warmer for the season, Phillips said. Doesn’t sound like much, but it is enough to mean more heat waves and more human suffering.
Phillips is less hopeful than Burnett that the rain will come. “Generally speaking, precipitation is a hit and miss. So it’s harder to forecast. There are storms not even born yet (and) you’re asking me to tell, ‘Oh you’re gonna get precipitation from that.’”
He would venture as far as to say, “Looks like a little wetter than normal in Atlantic Canada. But you know, I wouldn’t bet a loonie or two on that.”
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