Pierre Poilievre faces a leadership review at the Conservative Party’s national convention in Calgary this month.
On Jan. 30, as many as 4,100 convention delegates will vote on whether Poilievre should remain as party leader after a bruising loss in last year’s election. The review comes at a time when Poilievre faces low favourability ratings and has recently lost three MPs, putting the governing Liberals within two seats of a majority.
A recent poll by Abacus Data shows more Canadians view Poilievre negatively than positively, down from a net positive rating as recently as August.
That decline is due, at least in part, to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s increased appeal with swing voters, says Abacus CEO David Coletto.
“ He’s up against a far more popular individual now than he was for the first half of his time as leader,” said Coletto.
But political strategist Kate Harrison says both delegates and rank-and-file party members remain supportive of Poilievre.
“ A lot of Conservatives feel that Mr. Poilievre has done a good job … on the issues they care about, including affordability, immigration and crime,” said Harrison, who is vice chair of Ottawa consulting firm Summa Strategies.
“To some extent, a lot of Conservatives recognized that the last election ended up being about something completely different,” she added, noting the role Canada-U.S. relations played in the race.
However, the Abacus poll indicates domestic issues — not the Trump administration — are voters’ top concerns. For Harrison, this means Poilievre is on solid footing.
“ The party seems to be united with respect to trying to reconnect with Canadians on the things that they care about … rather than this … perceived threat around our relationship with United States,” Harrison said in a Jan. 15 interview.
No fracture
Poilievre, who has been party leader since 2022, delivered a higher share of the popular vote in the 2025 election (41 per cent) than any Conservative leader since Brian Mulroney in 1988 (43 per cent).
Part of that electoral success comes from Poilievre’s broad appeal to a historically splintered conservative political movement, says Coletto.
“If you’re going to give Poilievre credit for anything, it’s his ability to have kept that [coalition] together,” said Coletto. “Because it’s a diverse, complicated group of people who prioritize different issues [and] view the world in different ways.”
Yet, despite these successes, many are disappointed. Prior to then-prime minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation, polls had suggested Poilievre would win in a landslide.
Instead, Poilievre lost his own Ottawa seat, leaving him shut out of Parliament until August, when he won the Alberta riding of Battle River–Crowfoot in a by-election.
And the fall parliamentary session was bumpy. Former Conservative MPs Chris d’Entremont and Michael Ma crossed the floor to join the Liberals, while MP Matt Jeneroux said he plans to vacate his seat this spring.
But Harrison says Ottawa’s political climate has changed since last year. She expressed skepticism about rumours that another group of Conservative MPs are on the verge of leaving caucus.
“ I think there would have been a lot of pressure and incentive for [floor crossings] to happen around the time of the budget, and it makes not a whole lot of sense for that to happen … at this particular juncture,” she said.
“I think [when] we’re talking about the MPs that have crossed … I think that a lot of Conservatives can observe those [floor crossings] … as being personally motivated.”
Margins matter
The Conservative Party’s rules require that a leadership review be held after every election loss. Delegates vote by secret ballot.
Technically, Poilievre only needs to win a simple majority to remain in the job. But Harrison says the vote will need to be more decisive in practice.
“I think the high seventies, low eighties is a strong mandate for Mr. Poilievre to continue,” she said.
Among self-declared Conservatives, 72 per cent said they would vote to keep Poilievre if given the chance, according to the Abacus polling data.
Ian Brodie, former chief of staff to then-prime minister Stephen Harper, agrees that Poilievre will need to secure more than a simple majority.
“I would say the number to keep in mind is Mr. Poilievre’s number from the [2022 CPC leadership] race,” said Brodie, who declined to be interviewed for this story but referred Canadian Affairs to his remarks at a Jan. 21 press conference. In that race, Poilievre won 71 per cent of the votes in the first ballot.
“He won, by any standard, a crushing majority on the first ballot of that leadership race, and recruited almost 400,000 new people into the party.”
One factor suggesting Poilievre is unlikely to be dethroned at this review is the absence of obvious successors.
Historically, candidates who have tried to push out a leader during a leadership review do not go on to do very well, Brodie said at the press conference.
“So I’m not surprised that everyone’s sort of gotten the message to keep their mouth shut about whatever their ambitions might be. But politics is a game of ambitions, so there are obviously ambitious people out there who are just biting their tongues for the moment,” he added.
Brodie pointed to the example of former Alberta premier Jason Kenney’s surprising fall from power.
“[T]here was really nobody pushing themselves as an alternative to Mr. Kenney’s leadership three years ago. Obviously, Danielle Smith’s name was in circulation … but Danielle Smith was very careful not to go out and say, ‘It’s time to give Jason Kenney the heave ho.’
“Any secret ballot is unpredictable,” he said, noting Kenney’s 51 per cent support in Alberta’s 2022 Conservative leadership review.
Bettors, at least, think Poilievre’s job as leader is safe. The prediction market Polymarket shows bettors on that platform put Poilievre’s odds of remaining as leader through to 2027 at over 80 per cent.
Quebec edge
Some also note it could be hard for the party to find a successor who is as strong in Quebec as Poilievre, who has a French-Canadian background and is fluent in French.
Last spring, Poilievre delivered his party’s highest vote share in Quebec since 2006.
“ He’s been able to bring new groups of people on board that were not with the party before,” said Quebecois author and political commentator Étienne-Alexandre Beauregard.
Poilievre’s political capital in Quebec is partly due to his broader appeal with youth, says Beauregard, noting the Conservatives’ high support among voters under 35.
“As an observer, I see that in Quebec’s youth culture, there is a renewed interest,” he said, pointing to the role of high-profile online personalities who have engaged with Poilievre during his time as leader.
“Whatever you think of [Poilievre], you have to recognize that he’s a leader who knows a lot about Quebec culture,” he said.
Still, Poilievre won just 23 per cent of Quebec’s popular vote in the 2025 election, and the Abacus poll shows Poilievre’s unfavourability ratings are highest in Quebec.
“ They definitely have a lower ceiling [in Quebec],” said Coletto, noting the party’s historic underperformance in the province.
Harrison says a strong result next week would allow Poilievre to use the review as a “narrative refresh” — not only of his leadership, but of the party’s messaging strategy.
“Because of the leader having lost [his] own seat and being out of the House of Commons for some time … the Conservatives had been more reactive to issues as opposed to leading,” said Harrison.
“And I think that [the Conservatives] are really keen to get back to being the ones to lead the charge in the House of Commons.”
