Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose. That is the inevitable takeaway of new polling data released this week.
Amidst a month of incredible geopolitical uncertainty unleashed by President Donald Trump, Canadians ranked as their top concern … the rising cost of living.
And by some distance. A full 60 per cent of Canadians said the rising cost of living should be one of Ottawa’s top three priorities. The economy and health care were cited next, at 42 and 37 per cent, respectively.
Donald Trump and his administration trailed in fourth place at 35 per cent, in the Abacus poll conducted between Jan. 9 and 14.
At first blush, this sentiment may seem surprising, and not only because the pace and pointedness of Trump’s international provocations have accelerated in recent weeks. Statistics Canada’s recently released Consumer Price Index review for 2025 shows price increases have actually moderated.
Specifically, the report says the CPI, which measures the average change in prices for a fixed basket of goods and services, rose just 2.1 per cent in 2025, and 2.4 per cent the year before.
These numbers are below the long-term annual average inflation rate of 3.74 per cent. And they are within the Bank of Canada’s target band of one to three per cent.
But this does not mean voters’ pocketbook concerns should be waved away.
Consumers’ perceptions of rising costs are not measured in tidily defined 12-month periods. Consumers still remember the halcyon, pre-pandemic years when prices were much lower.
“While [2025’s CPI increase] is the lowest average annual increase since 2020, prices remained high in 2025, having risen by 19.9% over the past five years,” the Statistics Canada report says.
In other words, the relatively modest price increases of the past two years still pinch because they come on top of base prices that are up significantly from before COVID.
In addition, many of consumers’ most essential goods, namely food and housing, saw elevated price growth in recent years.
The report notes that grocery price increases accelerated in 2025 across numerous essential categories (don’t tell us coffee is not essential!). And rental prices increased sharply: five per cent last year on top of an eight per cent rise in 2024.
Home prices also rose, by three per cent. This is modest growth, but still significant in a market which saw housing prices soar post-pandemic.
What does all this data mean for Pierre Poilievre, whose fate as Conservative Party leader will be decided at next week’s leadership review?
In one sense, it could be considered good news. Poilievre is strongest when he focuses on the domestic issues that voters feel most dearly.
In an interview with Canadian Affairs this week, Abacus Data’s CEO David Coletto noted that voters who rank Canada’s internal economic and political problems as a top concern “were far more likely to think Poilievre is the right choice [to lead the country].”
Poilievre can also legitimately take credit for some of the cost decreases that Canadians have enjoyed in recent years. The Statistics Canada report points to a decline in energy prices as a key factor for lower CPI growth — and it notes the scrapped consumer tax as a key reason for this drop.
“The drop in gasoline prices (-8.6%), mainly attributable to the elimination of carbon pricing for consumers in April, contributed most to the decrease in 2025,” the report says, adding that the tax elimination also drove down natural gas prices.
But finding new issues to make his rallying cry could be Poilievre’s great challenge now.
For Prime Minister Mark Carney, the challenge is translating rhetoric into reality.
Carney’s rousing speech at Davos this week confirmed for many that he is the man for the job for which Canadians elected him: to lead Canada through this turbulent period with the U.S.
His less-than-rousing national address delivered two days later may have underwhelmed those Canadians worried about issues closer to home. Yes, Carney said the right things, noting affordability has been a “relentless focus” of his government.
But close to a year into his term, many Canadians are still waiting to see results.
On housing, for example, Carney all but promised the moon. But experts have so far panned his government’s supply-side housing initiatives. HIs government has, for example, written big cheques to municipalities for infrastructure projects, even when they have failed to deliver on Ottawa’s fairly modest requirement to reduce their barriers to housing development.
Same for health care. What’s the plan? Yes, health care is a matter of provincial jurisdiction, but so is housing.
Ottawa can use carrots or sticks to force provinces to make much-needed changes in housing and health care. If Carney plans to address voters’ top concerns, he’s going to have to start doing so — and fast.
