Overview:
This article is the third in our series looking at regional dynamics and local issues in the 2025 federal election.
Mere months ago, the federal Conservatives looked poised to sweep all but one of Alberta’s 37 ridings.
Today, numerous ridings in the province’s two major cities are closely contested. Seven of nine Edmonton ridings are toss-ups, as are three of Calgary’s 11 ridings.
Erika Barootes, former United Conservative Party president and principal secretary to Premier Danielle Smith, says the rapid shift in the political landscape helps explain why a significant minority of Albertans now say they would vote “yes” in a separatist referendum.
“ The topic of separatism is coming up more because there were a lot of people that saw the end of the tunnel,” she said, referring to recently dashed hopes by some voters of a resounding Conservative win.
“ I think it’s about discontent … with the past nine years, and the policies that have been put in place by this Liberal government, as well as in the eighties under a different Trudeau,” she said.
Energy a top issue
Energy policy remains a defining issue in Alberta, Canada’s largest producer of crude oil and natural gas.
Liberal Leader Mark Carney has pledged to make Canada a global energy superpower in both clean and conventional energy.
“We already rank at the top for global investment in battery and storage technologies. And we have barely begun to scratch the surface of our potential to build out more renewable power, such as wind and solar power,” the Liberal platform says.
Carney has said he would introduce a new federal office to streamline approvals for infrastructure projects. But he is also promising to leave in place the Impact Assessment Act, formerly Bill C-69, which requires Ottawa to assess the environmental, health and social impacts of proposed infrastructure projects. The act has been widely criticized as an obstacle to energy project development.
“If you don’t remove C-69, we all know what that means,” said Barootes, suggesting this stance sends a strong anti-energy signal.
Premier Smith has criticized Carney for what she says is incoherent messaging on energy policy.
“The prime minister’s words sounded kind of nice yesterday — until I found out that his new environment minister had just told media on the other side of the country that the federal Liberals would be keeping the emissions cap in place,” Smith said in a March 21 press release, a day after meeting with Carney in Edmonton. Carney has promised to continue Trudeau-era policies of taxing industrial emitters and maintaining a federal cap on carbon emissions.
“This has been the same story for the last 10 years. Liberals come to Alberta, smile for the cameras, tell everyone how much they are going to work with Alberta and support the energy sector,” Smith said. “Then they leave, go home, and proceed to do everything in their power to roadblock and scare away investment from the energy sector.”
Cheryl Oates, who was previously communications director for former Alberta premier Rachel Notley, believes the energy issue may not be a dealbreaker for the Albertans who vote Liberal.
“In terms of the actual details of how they plan to accomplish [resource development] or get pipelines built faster or support the industry, I think that matters less in Albertans’ minds than the idea that Alberta’s contributions and industry is acknowledged, and that [Ottawa is] willing to do something to support conventional and new energy,” Oates said.
For their part, the Conservatives have promised to repeal the Impact Assessment Act.
“Canada needs to rapidly build energy infrastructure to protect our sovereignty and economy,” said Calgary Nose Hill incumbent Conservative MP Michelle Rempel Garner in an April 1 X post. “Conservatives will repeal C-69 and create a national energy corridor to keep Canada strong.”
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has said a national energy corridor would expedite interprovincial resource projects.
“My ‘Canada First National Energy Corridor’ will enable us to quickly build the infrastructure we need to strengthen our country so we can stand on our own two feet and stand up to the Americans,” Poilievre said at a March 31 campaign event in Saint John, N.B.
Similar to Carney, he has promised to create a Rapid Resource Project Office that would consolidate provincial and federal regulatory reviews for resource projects. He has also pledged to create a Canadian Indigenous Opportunities Corporation, which offers loan guarantees for Indigenous-led resource projects.
Regardless of which party wins the election, Barootes struggles to envision prospects for the energy industry getting worse. “You can’t really get any more anti-energy than Trudeau’s government was,” she said.
Five million in Alberta
Housing affordability is a national concern this election. But in Alberta, the issue has taken on an added sense of urgency in the face of rapid population growth.
In March 2025, Alberta’s population was up 3.5 per cent from the prior year, bringing the total population to five million. As of March 2025, rental prices were up 4.6 per cent over the prior year, and home prices were up 5.4 per cent.
“Of course, we’re not in the position in Alberta that markets like Toronto and Vancouver are, but housing prices are increasing,” said Oates.
“[H]ousing equals cost of living, and being able to have a quality of life that you want,” Barootes said.
Both major parties have recognized the issue, Barootes says. But in her view, the Conservatives have done more to “flesh out” a plan to address the issue than parties on the centre-left.
The Liberals have promised to eliminate the GST on new homes under $1 million for first-time buyers, invest in affordable housing construction, and incentivize municipalities to reduce development charges.
The Conservatives have pledged to remove the GST on new homes under $1.3 million for all home buyers. They have promised to withhold federal funding from municipalities that fail to address barriers to housing construction and reward those that exceed housing targets. More recently, they also said they would incentivize municipalities to reduce development charges.
Western alienation
In an April 6 Angus Reid poll, 25 per cent of Albertans said they would vote “yes” in a referendum about Alberta becoming an independent country; 30 per cent said they would vote “yes” if the Liberals were to form the next government.
Despite these numbers, Oates does not believe Western separatism is a pressing concern.
“The majority of Albertans think of themselves as Canadians first,” she said. “ I do think it’s a very small group of people who really are considering this as a viable option.”
Barootes says separatist sentiment is “nothing new.” The Angus Reid poll indicates separatist sentiment was considerably stronger in 2019, when just 17 per cent of Albertans said they felt their province was being “treated fairly by the national government.” Last month, that number was 36 per cent.
But there is a reason the topic of separatism is being raised again now, she says.
“[Albertans] are at their wits end … they can’t imagine another four years of the hurt that they experienced.”
The latest 338 Canada polling data show the Liberal Party winning 188 seats in Parliament, which would put them over the 172-seat threshold needed to form a majority government.
