With the U.S. pausing military aid to Ukraine, the question of whether other western countries will step up to secure the beleaguered nation’s security has become more pressing.
At a recent event in Toronto, Ukraine’s ambassador to Canada sketched out what security guarantees from other countries could look like.
“How can you support Ukraine? By increasing military support to Ukraine,” Ambassador Yulia Kovaliv said at The National Club in Toronto on Feb. 13.
“This is what the other allies are doing. The U.K. already announced they would be increasing military spending from £3 billion to £4.5 billion,” she said.
At a security conference in Kyiv in late February, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau indicated Canada would support sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine. But experts say the Canadian Armed Forces would only be able to make a small contribution given its current funding and capacity levels.
Canada would struggle to contribute even a few thousand troops to a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, said Robert Baines, president of the NATO Association of Canada, which promotes understanding of NATO’s role in global security.
“But give it two to three years, if defence spending is increased, perhaps we could contribute,” said Baines, who spoke alongside Kovaliv at the event.
A win-win
Chris Kilford, director of the Canadian International Council think tank, says that if Canada were to participate in securing Ukraine after a ceasefire deal, it would likely be “an extension of everything we have been doing to support Ukraine since 2015.”
Since 2015, Canada has trained more than 44,000 Ukrainian troops in Poland, the United Kingdom and Germany.
Canada also currently has about 1,900 troops stationed in Latvia as part of a multinational NATO operation aimed at deterring further Russian aggression. Canada is the “framework nation” in the Baltic nation, meaning it is responsible for ensuring the troops of all 14 contributing NATO allies are combat ready.
And since February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, Canada has provided more than $4.5 billion in military assistance to Ukraine.
Jack Cunningham, a professor of international relations at the University of Toronto, says these contributions have limited Canada’s capacity to contribute much more.
“We have had to deplete our already low stocks to aid Ukraine and buy material from abroad,” said Cunningham. “We have not ramped up our production capacity to the point where we can do better.”
But at the National Club event, Kovaliv encouraged Canada to give more, noting doing so would also benefit Canada.
“[Military] support from Canada is a win-win. Over 50 per cent of the military support sent from Canada to Ukraine [has spurred] new production in Canada,” she said.
On Feb. 24, Trudeau announced that Canada would send $5 billion in financial aid to Ukraine. These funds will come from seizing the assets of sanctioned Russian entities, which mainly sit in European banks. Canada has been leading the push to expropriate frozen Russian assets since 2023, when G7 member countries first agreed to a mechanism for doing so.
The first $2.5 billion will be sent to Ukraine in the coming days; the remaining half will come shortly thereafter, a statement from the Prime Minister’s Office says.
This latest financial aid package is likely to be the last wave of support provided to Ukraine under Trudeau, who has pledged to step down on March 24.
Last week, the candidates vying to replace Trudeau as Liberal Party leader and prime minister participated in two debates. The debates included no discussion of a possible peacekeeping mission in Ukraine.
Chantalle Aubertin, a spokesperson for Liberal leadership contender Chrystia Freeland, told Canadian Affairs in an email that, “Chrystia would support an international peacekeeping effort if that were deemed helpful and supported by Ukraine as part of a lasting peace.” A spokesperson for front-runner Mark Carney did not provide comment by press time.
Kilford says he expects Canada’s next prime minister to follow the lead of its international allies.
“The next prime minister will take his or her cues from our allies — not so much from the U.S. though and more so France, the UK, Germany and Poland.”
Backdrop of uncertainty
Baines says there is too much uncertainty to speculate on the possibility of a ceasefire deal or any peacekeeping mission to enforce it.
“Right now, we’re just guessing in the dark, we have no idea what is going to be agreed upon between the United States and Russia, let alone once President Zelensky also has his say, which is essential,” he said.
Kilford echoed these observations.
“One minute President Trump is calling President Zelensky a dictator and the next denying he ever did so,” he said.
Against this backdrop of uncertainty, Ukraine’s president has been working to shore up support among non-U.S. allies.
On Feb. 14, Zelensky told journalists that Ukraine would require a 100,000-person strong peacekeeping force to secure itself from future Russian aggression if it is not admitted to the NATO military alliance.
Kilford is skeptical that a force this size could be assembled.
“I think a 100,000 strong international peacekeeping force in Ukraine to act as a deterrent to another Russian invasion is unlikely,” he said.
Kilford suggests that allies could instead provide a combination of other supports, such as long-range missiles and air defense systems.
But the problem is not simply about the quantity of troops available, Baines says. The problem is that a U.S. withdrawal would strip the region of broader military support — such as intelligence and airlift capabilities — that the U.S. has “almost always” provided to NATO missions.
In an interview with CTV’s Vassy Kapelos last week, Minister of Foreign Affairs Melanié Joly said she still believes the U.S. will join western allies in supporting a security guarantee for Ukraine.
“All the different countries that have participated in supporting Ukraine right now, through military aid, through financial aid, are all right now talking with the Americans about what we could do to help stabilize the situation,” she said.
Kilford believes Ukraine’s allies could provide Ukraine with “an international observer force on the ground supported by robust intelligence gathering to monitor Russian troop movements.”
In his view, the EU would likely lead this mission, and would be “supported by Canada and others outside the EU.”
Cunningham, the University of Toronto professor, says Canada is limited in its ability to meaningfully contribute in any way until it has begun to restore its military.
“Restoring our defence industrial base will take several years. It will also require a willingness on the part of the public to accept — and the political leadership to impose — higher taxes and reduced services,” he said.
