The US presidential election on Tuesday presents Americans with a stark choice between current vice president Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump.
With just days remaining before the election, the race remains tight. As of Nov.1, Harris held a 1.2 per cent lead in the national polls, while betting markets favoured Trump.
Canadian Affairs asked experts to weigh in on some of the key ways a Democratic or Republican presidential win could affect Canadians.
“If Harris wins, then things will be mostly the same as they were under the Biden administration or under the Obama administration or under the Bush administration,” says Stephen Saideman, a professor at Carleton University who holds the Paterson Chair in International Affairs.
Clifford Young, president of polling and societal trends at Ipsos Reid, says, “[Trump’s] first administration was not as unhinged as many thought.” But he predicts a second Trump administration “might be more anti-establishment than his last one; more protectionist.”
Trade and tariffs
A key policy of the first Trump administration was increasing tariffs on imported goods. Young predicts this stance to be a key feature of a second Trump administration.
“There’s a groundswell, there is support in the population in general for protectionism,” he said.
A more protectionist administration could pose challenges for Canadian exporters.
“The biggest thing is the threat of tariffs. Canadians won’t be able to trade as much with the United States because everything is going to become 20 per cent more expensive,” said Saideman.
“It’ll mean that American producers may end up opting to use American parts rather than Canadian parts, because Canadian parts won’t be as competitive in American products,” he added.
Young expects that Canada’s approach to negotiating with the US on trade — or other files — will need to be different if Trump wins.
“If it’s a Trump administration, the way you negotiate is going to be much different. It won’t necessarily be a broad-based, multi-country endeavour. It might just be Canada going alone, getting a better deal than they otherwise would.”
Security shifts
Trump and Harris have contrasting views on defence and global security, each with implications for Canada.
Trump’s “America First” approach emphasizes reducing US commitments abroad and demanding that NATO allies increase their defence spending to at least 2 per cent of GDP.
Canada will spend just 1.29 per cent of GDP — or $39 billion — on defence in fiscal year 2024-2025, according to the Parliamentary Budget Officer.
Kelly Craft, who served as US ambassador to Canada during the Trump administration, says the former president’s approach is about achieving fairness for the American people.
“If Canada is showing that they are serious about their defence budget and the 2 per cent [target], and that they are serious about the different chapters of trade that we may have disagreements with … then you’ll have the best friend you’ve ever had,” Craft said at an event hosted by the Public Policy Forum in Ottawa on Oct. 24.
“But President Trump feels very strongly that American taxpayers should not be carrying the majority of the burden … All we ask is for people to pay their fair share,” she said.
Canada currently has military personnel stationed in Latvia as part of Operation Reassurance, a NATO strategy designed to buttress the military alliance’s border with Russia.
Saideman says it is unclear what impact a second Trump administration could have on this operation. But he says it is “not a possibility, [but] a likelihood” that the US will pull back from the alliance in some form if Trump wins.
“I don’t know what’s going to happen with the Latvia mission if the United States either pulls out, formally or informally, from NATO … Every country [would] have to figure out ways to work around all the things they depended on the United States for, like long range airstrikes, air defense [or] nuclear deterrence,” he said.
A Harris administration, by contrast, would most likely represent a continuation of the status quo. Like President Joe Biden, she has expressed unwavering support for the state of Israel and its security. And she has consistently reaffirmed America’s commitment to backing Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.
“I will work to ensure Ukraine prevails in this war. To be safe, secure, and prosperous, the United States must continue to fulfill our long-standing role of global leadership,” Harris told reporters at a Sept. 26 press conference.
Climate and energy
Climate change has not been a top issue for either party, says Young — which could have implications for Canada’s energy industry. Â
“Climate change is not a critical issue here. … It’s not even part of the debate.”
Young predicts a Trump administration would be less likely to enter into multilateral climate agreements. Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Climate Accord during his first term. The US subsequently re-entered the agreement under Biden. Trump has indicated that he would withdraw the US again if re-elected.
He also has a pro-oil posture that could have important implications for some companies and communities in Canada. Trump has said he would immediately approve energy infrastructure, including pipelines.
Hardisty, Alta., a two-hour drive southeast of Edmonton, is the starting point of the Keystone pipeline, which transports Canadian crude oil to American refineries. The Keystone XL, a proposed expansion pipeline, was rejected by President Barack Obama in 2015. It was revived by Trump in 2017 and then rejected again by Biden on his first day in office in 2021.
Blake Moser, chairman of the community organization Hardisty and District Development Group, says that an expansion of the pipeline would have a profound impact on the community’s businesses and workers.
“In addition, the preventative maintenance work that occurs after an asset like Keystone XL is constructed will continue into the future, creating a long-term benefit for the community and local service providers.”
Conversely, prior to the vice presidency, then-senator Harris co-sponsored the Green New Deal, a non-binding resolution that called for a massive restructuring of the American economy around renewable energy.
However, during this election campaign, Harris’s advocacy for green causes has softened, illustrated most clearly by her reversal on fracking, which she now says she supports.
Immigration
Finally, as immigration reductions make headlines in Canada, a future Trump administration could force Canada to deal with a further surge of immigrants in an already backlogged system.
As of Aug. 31, Canada was experiencing a backlog of nearly 1.1 million immigration applications.
Saideman estimates that approximately 10 million individuals could be subject to deportation under a Trump administration.
“It’s going to be pushed in our direction. Canada’s got to face the question of [how] to deal with asylum cases.”
