The diplomatic rift between Canada and India widened further this week with Canada alleging Amit Shah, one of India’s most powerful cabinet ministers, was behind efforts to target Sikh separatists on Canadian soil.
The rupture in diplomatic relations marks a significant departure from recent years, and could have ripple effects that will be felt throughout Canada’s large and diverse Indian diaspora community.
“What has happened now is obviously a huge escalation in the diplomatic crisis,” said Vina Nadjibulla, vice president of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, a foreign relations think tank.
“We’re waiting to see what will be the ramifications on some sectors, particularly commercial relations, as well as the flow of students to Canada, as well as obviously travel from Canada.”
Diplomatic disruption
Until recently, federal and provincial governments had been seeking to deepen trade and investment ties with India, which is Canada’s top source country for permanent residents, international students and temporary foreign workers.
“The relationship was actually on an upward trajectory until last September,” says Nadjibulla. “When Canada launched its Indo-Pacific strategy at the end of 2022, India was noted as a critical partner and there was a lot of effort to try to engage much more on trade and on other files.”
But the June 2023 killing of Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar outside a Sikh temple in Surrey, B.C., has thrown the bilateral relationship into disarray.
Experts noted it is difficult to speak in generalities about the effects of recent developments on the Indo-Canadian community.
“[T]here’s a lot of diversity in the Indo-Canadian community and the South Asian community in Canada,” said Nadjibulla. “Particularly in public discussions, and the way the media covers it, sometimes there’s this kind of blanket statement [about] that one community.”
In 2021, there were 1.3 million people of Indian origin in Canada. That same year, 2.3 per cent of Canadians identified as Hindu and 2.1 per cent as Sikh; Indian Muslim, Jain and Christian communities were other notable minorities.
Pandit Roopnauth Sharma, president of the advocacy organization Hindu Federation, says he does not believe the diplomatic incident is creating a conflict between Canada’s Hindu and Sikh communities.
But both Sharma and Nadjibulla noted some members of the community feel more vulnerable as a result of the targeted attacks.
“There is now a heightened sense of fear and tensions and uncertainty across the [Hindu and Sikh] communities within Canada,” said Nadjibulla.
Some Hindu temples were vandalized following Nijjar’s killing, Sharma says. The vandalism included pro-Khalistani language, he says, referring to those who advocate for a separate Sikh homeland to be carved out of India.
Anil Varughese, a professor of political science at Carleton University, says the majority of Indo-Canadians today would not be sympathetic to the Khalistani separatist movement that animated individuals such as Nijjar.
“The newer generation of Sikh immigrants who were relatively fresh from India … are not really bothered by [Khalistani separatism],” said Varughese. “They don’t have a reason to support this … they grew up in India at a time when the Khalistan movement had already died.”
But experts say Canadians’ perceptions of the diplomatic conflict differ greatly from perceptions in India, due to vastly different media portrayals.
“The narratives couldn’t be more different,” said Nadjibulla.
“Here in Canada, we see this very much as… a public safety issue … Canada is essentially asking India to cooperate, and India is not cooperating.”
In India, by contrast, “there’s almost a full consensus — in all publications regardless of their orientation, but also among the political elites and two main [political] parties — that this is a case of Canada picking a fight with India,” said Nadjibulla.
Varughese agrees. “There’s a completely different narrative there,” he said.
Tit for tat
One of the potential effects of the diplomatic conflict, experts say, is the ease with which people are able to move between Canada and India — whether for short-term or long-term visits.
In September 2023, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canadian intelligence agencies were “actively pursuing credible allegations of a potential link” between the government of India and the killing of Nijjar, Delhi suspended services at its visa application centre in Canada. That suspension lasted two months.
“[Indo-Canadian] citizens … still have ongoing and enduring connections to their family back in India,” said Varughese. “So they are worried about not being able to go to attend weddings or to visit parents and grandparents … if there’s going to be any restrictions on visas for Canadian citizens.”
This October, Canada expelled six Indian diplomats from the country — and India responded in kind — after the Trudeau government accused agents of India’s government of engaging in “activities that pose a significant threat to public safety.”
Varughese notes there is a risk of the escalating diplomatic dispute affecting Indians’ ability to access Canada.
“Basically, this population worries whether there’ll be delays in student visas being approved or whether there’ll be problems in converting to permanent residency.”
“A lot of international students have put their life savings, their family savings, into coming to Canada with the intention of becoming a permanent resident here,” said Varughese.
The diaspora
It also remains to be seen whether the dispute affects voter behaviour in the federal election, which must take place by October 2025.
According to a May 2024 Angus Reid poll, 53 per cent of Hindus and 54 per cent of Sikhs support the Conservatives. Support for the Liberals stands at 22 per cent among Hindus and 21 per cent among Sikhs. The NDP garners 18 per cent support from Hindus and 20 per cent from Sikhs.
These party preferences closely align with that of the general public, Nadjibulla notes.
Diplomatic disputes may have less of an impact on the Indo-Canadian vote than social policy, Varughese says.
“The social conservatism of the Conservative Party is something that appeals to the Indian immigrants,” he said.
For her part, Nadjibulla said it is currently difficult to see a “clear path forward” out of the conflict, when the “two governments are speaking past each other.”
“There will be a role for private diplomacy and for the support from our allies, notably the US, to find a path forward,” she said, while acknowledging that the Americans have broader regional objectives and interests, mainly hedging against Chinese expansion.
“I think it’s going to be a delicate diplomatic balancing act for the US and would require a lot of skillful diplomacy.”
