Last month, Statistics Canada reported that Canada’s fertility rate had reached a new low in 2023. The rate of 1.26 births per woman puts Canada in the group of “lowest-low fertility countries,” defined as those with a fertility rate below 1.3. This group also includes South Korea, Italy and Japan.
However, a new Angus Reid poll shows Canadians disagree on whether the country’s low birth rate is a crisis.
Results show that while 43 per cent of respondents believe Canada faces a birth rate crisis, 42 per cent disagree. The remaining 16 per cent noted they are not sure or cannot say. Women in every age group were more likely to say it is not a crisis.
“The gender split didn’t surprise me because women do take on the majority of the work for raising children,” said Margo Hilbrecht, executive director at The Vanier Institute of the Family, a research organization. “I think maybe [women] recognize the amount of work [in child care], the career hit that goes on — or the ‘motherhood penalty,’ as they call it.
“If it becomes personalized at that level … they’re not thinking about the country.”
But a lack of population rejuvenation will have drastic consequences on the country’s stability, says Andrea Mrozek, senior fellow at the think tank Cardus. Chronic childlessness could lead to a contraction of the national economy and fewer people to care for an aging population.
“Our social security net is grounded in the idea that children are coming up to pay for it,” said Mrozek. “All the benefits that we enjoy as part of a functioning democratic society, I think, are undergirded by the fact that we have a next generation coming up to pay for it.”
Lack of status
The poll shows personal choice is overwhelmingly the top cause of childlessness, with 67 per cent of childless respondents noting children are “just not something I want for my life.” In second place, 25 per cent said they remain childless because they find child care too expensive.
High cost of living and child-care costs contribute to Canadians choosing not to have children, says Hilbrecht. The country’s 2023 birth rate of 1.26 was down five per cent from 2021.
Having children “is a huge financial commitment,” said Hilbrecht. “We see the cost of housing affordability and finding adequate space — especially in the larger cities — is a huge burden on people who are trying to make ends meet.”
From 2014 to 2017, families with two children who earned more than $135,790 spent an average of $403,910 for each child from birth until 17 years old, according to a 2023 Statistics Canada report. Families making less than $83,000 spent about $238,000.
As achievements such as owning a house and becoming financially stable become more difficult to attain, couples can wait longer to have children.
Half of those who plan to have kids delayed longer than they wanted, according to the poll. The two major reasons for the delay were financial concerns and waiting to find the right partner.
Childless couples can have a compounding effect, influencing others to decide that becoming a family is not a realistic or necessary milestone.
“A lot of Canadians don’t see other people having kids, and so it no longer looks like a viable option,” said Mrozek.
Acute childlessness can also erase the value society gives to becoming a parent, said Mrozek.
“There’s death associated with having children, and there’s no high regard in our culture,” she said. “I think that the total lack of status associated with having children … also brings it down in the roster of things people view as valuable.”
‘Shift in values’
Just more than half of respondents said it is not their responsibility to pay for the child-care expenses of others. Canadians who had children over 18 were the most likely to agree, at 59 per cent. Half of childless respondents and those with children aged 13 to 17 agreed.
“I think what this shows is that … there may be a shift in values where … the idea of a redistribution, of a very strong welfare state, may not be as popular as in the ‘60s or ‘70s,” said Sophie Mathieu, senior program specialist at The Vanier Institute of the Family.
The high number could also indicate respondents misunderstood the question, thinking it could perhaps allude to higher taxes to cover public child-care costs, she said.
Public funding for good-quality child care boosts the economy and helps children’s development, especially those from a vulnerable background, says Mathieu.
“Access to child care has a direct effect on public finances in the way that when mothers have a child-care space, they can go to the labour market, become taxpayers,” said Mathieu. “At the end of the road, you’ll have more taxpayers, and it may actually decrease what you’re paying as a taxpayer.”
Only one-third of parents who pay for child care paid $10 a day. Half paid $20 or more a day.
There is no easy answer to increasing Canada’s fertility rate, says Mrozek. But the consequences of a collapsing birth rate could be significant.
“We will, I think, experience outcomes from pervasive childlessness that aren’t going to be pleasant,” said Mrozek.
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