On the last Saturday of August, hundreds of young, pro-Palestinian activists gathered in front of the Human Rights Monument in Ottawa to petition the federal government to sanction and condemn Israel for its actions in Gaza.
Many of the protestors at the Ottawa4Palestine march were visibly frustrated with the Liberal Party, which has ignored calls from the party’s more progressive elements to recognize Palestinian statehood and impose a comprehensive arms embargo on Israel.
Yet, it is not clear that the New Democratic Party — which has more clearly allied itself with the Palestinian cause since last October — is poised to enjoy a corresponding surge in support from young voters.
“Once I reached voting age, I thought that the NDP was the best option for me because they seem to hold the rhetoric of wanting to make systemic change,” said Meral Aduli, an activist in her early twenties who helped coordinate a Labour4Palestine Ottawa march two days later.
“After October 7, it just highlighted to me that the NDP also has performative aspects that they need to be held accountable for.”
‘Always very performative’
When the Liberal Party swept into power in 2015, the party won as much of the 18- to 25-year-old demographic as the NDP and Conservatives combined: 45 per cent, versus 25 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively.
But times have changed. Sentiment towards the Liberals among young voters has soured, with just 22 per cent of 18- to 35-year-olds now expressing support for the Liberals, according to July 2024 Abacus polling data.
The Liberals’ efforts to appease both pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian constituents may be one factor alienating young voters, who tend to be dramatically more critical of Israel than older Canadians.
A June 2024 Angus Reid poll showed just 20 per cent of young Canadian men and 14 per cent of young Canadian women viewed Israel “favourably” or “mostly “favourably.”
“A lot of the members of the Liberal Party are hypocrites in their support for Palestine,” said Mahmoud Khalil, an organizer with Montreal4Palestine who was in Ottawa to lead the Ottawa4Palestine march on Aug. 31.
“The concerns they raise for Palestine are very limited,” he said. “They talk about wanting a ceasefire, but none of them are talking about the $60 million in weapons that are being manufactured in Quebec.”
Aduli agrees.
“[The Liberal Party has] just never spoken to me or presented my views in a way that’s actually felt meaningful,” she said. “It was always very performative. … The Liberals never had a policy that has ever stood by the people of Gaza or by Palestinian people.”
The Liberal Party did not respond to requests for comment by press time.
The Liberals did on Sept. 10 make clear that it would be blocking a deal to send ammunition produced by a Quebec-based division of the American defence contractor General Dynamies to Israel.
“As for the question regarding General Dynamics, our policy is clear,” Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly told reporters at the Liberal’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. “We will not have any form of arms, or parts of arms, be sent to Gaza. Period. How they’re being sent and where they’re being sent is irrelevant.”
‘Not their fault’
While Khalil and Aduli are not pleased with the Liberals’ stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict, they are also not impressed by the NDP.
“[The NDP] had lots of issues with their foreign policies before October 7,” said Aduli. “But I naively had to believe that there were people within the party that could actually make a difference.”
“After October 7, when there were a bunch of statements being made by NDP members of Parliament condemning Palestinian resistance and framing October 7 in a vacuum, I felt like not even the NDP could represent me,” she said.
Joel Harden, an NDP MPP for Ontario who is seeking the NDP nomination for the federal riding of Ottawa Centre, says the NDP has an obligation to represent youth voters while maneuvering within the confines of an inflexible system.
“It’s not their fault if they’re not seeing anything in the political spectrum that excites them,” he told Canadian Affairs at the Labour Day march, which was organized by the Ottawa and District Labour Council and attended by the Labour4Palestine Ottawa contingent.
To Harden, the NDP is pushing in the right direction, if not always delivering decisive policy wins.
“Have we made all the right decisions at every moment? No, we’ve made mistakes,” he said. “But I think we’ve been on the right side of history. And if young people want to get involved and make change with a mass party that has a platform, they’re welcome to join us.”
‘Lukewarm support’
For some Canadians, the Israel-Palestine conflict has felt like an inflection point in Canadian politics. But pollster Shachi Kurl suggests it may ultimately be less consequential than the regular demonstrations suggest.
“We’ve certainly seen more activism, louder activism,” said Kurl, who is president of the Angus Reid Institute. “[But] I don’t know that we understand the connection, yet, between the activism and the political engagement … I would say that the migration of young people away from Justin Trudeau predates the events in the Middle East of last October.”
Support for the NDP among the general public has held roughly steady at 20 per cent for the past two years, she says. One trend she has observed is young women shifting their support to the NDP. But even that “pre-dates October 7,” she said.
Currently, “women under the age of 35” is the only category in which the NDP are polling in first place, with 41 per cent support, according to an August 2024 EKOS poll.
While drawing broad conclusions about the conflict’s impact is difficult, zooming in on specific races may provide insight, Kurl says.
“The tangible consequences [of the Liberals’ stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict] were very much on display in Toronto-St. Paul’s,” she said, referring to the June 24 by-election where the Conservatives won an unexpected victory. “That was where many disaffected Liberal voters actually voted Conservative over the issue.”
Anthony Koch, a former director of communications for Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, told Canadian Affairs at the time that the Liberals’ “lukewarm support for the State of Israel” was a key factor in the party’s success with Jewish voters.
Harden says the Sept. 16 by-election in the Montreal riding of LaSalle–Émard–Verdun will provide voters with another opportunity to express their dissatisfaction with the Liberals’ position on the Israel-Palestine conflict.
“Go to our campaign office; there’s a reason there’s a Palestinian flag in the office window,” he said.
“It’s because we care about Palestinian human rights. We will not be silent in the context of a Palestinian genocide, and I’m very proud to be a New Democrat in this moment.”
