If a general election were held today, the polls indicate something unusual would happen. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative party would win and it’d be thanks, in no small part, to Gen Z and Millennials.
Young voters typically lean left. In Britain, support for Rishi Sunak’s Tory party among under-thirties is at just nine per cent. Only about one third of young adults voted for the right in the most recent elections in France, Germany and Spain. And about the same number in the US intend to vote for Donald Trump in November.
Canada’s young people have voted similarly. In 2021, Abacus polls released just before the country’s general election showed that about 27 per cent of under-thirties and 30 per cent of people ages 30-44 supported Erin O’Toole’s Tories. But since then, young Canadians have shifted steadily rightward. The Tories now poll at 34 per cent and 41 per cent of those two groups, respectively. Meanwhile, support for the Liberals has fallen sharply, by about 10 points in both cohorts.
What gives?
For a lot of young people it’s the economy, stupid (that’s right Boomers, you’re not the only ones who can make that joke). You’ve heard the story before. Canada’s economy underperforms its peers on a per capita basis. Debt is up. Hiring is down — new job openings are 25 per cent below year-ago levels, according to RBC Economics. And reports that young Canadians might never be able to afford a home abound.
Poilievre has made inroads with young voters — like me — because he’s made housing the sine qua non of his campaign. Part of his plan is to tie federal funding to housing starts, such that cities would have to increase the number of homes they build by 15 per cent annually. Of course plans are just that and the details of Poilievre’s housing plan beyond that 15 per cent benchmark are vague. Still, it seems he’s been able to move the needle with young people on this issue.
